NZD

• Fed rhetoric. Comments by the Fed’s Waller were in focus. Waller’s message supported the view that the next Fed move will probably be a rate cut.• Market repricing. The pull-back in US bond yields & the USD extended. EUR, NZD & AUD edged up to multi-month highs. USD/JPY lost some ground.• Trans-Tasman Events. Locally, the monthly CPI indicator due today. A slowdown in annual inflation is predicted. RBNZ expected to keep rates steady. The pull-back in bond yields and the USD extended overnight as expectations that the US Fed’s tightening cycle has ended were reinforced by policymaker comments. The...

• Softer tone. Equities lost some ground & bond yields dipped back overnight. Oil still on the backfoot & the USD remains under pressure.• AUD upswing. AUD’s positive run continued. AUD above ~$0.66 for the first time since early-August. But following its rapid rise it may face some local hurdles.• Local data. AU retail sales due today & monthly CPI released tomorrow. Did cash conscious households hold back their spending for the ‘Black Friday’ sales? It has been a rather subdued start to the week. As our chart shows, the VIX Index (the volatility measure for the S&P500) is at...

• Trends extend. European equities ticked up, bond yields rose. Oil gave back ground. Iron ore elevated. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Weaker USD. USD remains under pressure. USD index is near where it started the year. Factors that propelled the USD higher have changed course.• Event radar. Locally, retail sales & monthly CPI are due. Offshore, US PCE deflator, manufacturing ISM, China PMIs & Eurozone inflation are released. It was a fairly quiet end to last week across markets with the US having a holiday shortened session on Friday following the Thanksgiving break. European equities ticked...

• Mixed markets. Equities ticked up with the S&P500 enjoying its 8th straight gain. USD index consolidated, but commodity currencies like the AUD slipped back.• Bonds & oil. The slide in long-end bond yields & oil continued. US 10yr yields are now ~50bps below the late-October peak. Oil is at a multi-month low.• AUD stumble. AUD has given back ~1/2 its recent rebound. Domestic wage & jobs data released next week could see AU rate expectations rebound. With not too much economic news most markets have consolidated over the past day. Equities have generally ticked up with the major European...