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MXN

15 Jul 2024

Trump Assassination Attempt Bolsters Dollar

The dollar has snapped a three-day losing streak and global markets are retracing their steps after the attempted assassination of former president Donald Trump at a campaign event in Pennsylvania over the weekend. Treasury yields are up, equity futures are heading toward a positive open, oil prices are up, and the Mexican peso is down a little over 1 percent as we go to print. Most observers believe that the attempt – bolstered by a dramatic photo of a bloodied Trump triumphantly holding his fist aloft – will translate into a bump in the polls, making it more likely that...

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11 Jul 2024

Dollar Retreats Ahead of Inflation Print

Yields are softening and the dollar is dropping ahead of US inflation numbers that could bolster the case for policy easing from the Federal Reserve. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback is holding near a one-month low as most of its rivals advance. Data out in less than half an hour is expected to show underlying US consumer prices rising at the slowest two-month pace since last summer, reinforcing market confidence in a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ core inflation measure is seen climbing just 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, with goods...

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10 Jul 2024

Markets Hold Firm After Cautious Fedspeak

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was disappointingly non-committal on the likelihood of a September rate cut in yesterday’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, explicitly saying “I’m not going to be sending any signals about the timing of future actions”. The Fed Funds futures curve remained essentially unchanged, with two moves priced in this year, and roughly four expected by June 2025. Dovish hints were there, though, for those determined to find them. In noting that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” saying that labour costs are “not a source of inflationary pressures now,” and emphasising the...

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05 Jul 2024

Dollar Falls As Payrolls Loom

The dollar is retreating and global stock markets are marching toward record highs ahead of a non-farm payrolls report that is expected to show US labour markets softening, helping set the stage for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve by the early autumn. The British pound is adding to its gains after Keir Starmer’s Labour Party absolutely crushed its Conservative opponents in yesterday’s British election, taking at least 410 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. Traders expect Starmer’s government to usher in a period of relative political calm after 14 years of volatile Tory rule, with higher levels...

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28 Jun 2024

Markets Stabilise Ahead of Inflation Print

The dollar is slipping from a six-week high reached last night, ahead of US inflation data that is seen bolstering the case for lower interest rates. Equity futures are edging higher, Treasury yields are moving sideways, and currencies are back to trading in tight ranges as participants keep their powder dry. The latest in a series of market-moving political upsets came last night when President Biden turned in a disastrous performance in a televised debate, inviting questions from Democratic officials as to whether he should remain in the race. Struggling to counter a confident and falsehood-spewing Donald Trump, Biden’s weak...

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