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Dollar Climbs on Trump Tariff Threats

The dollar is trading near a two-month high after Donald Trump doubled down on his trade threats in a widely-watched interview with Bloomberg News. “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff’,” he said, telling interviewer John Micklethwait – formerly editor-in-chief of The Economist – “It must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs as being negative and then have somebody explain to you that you’re totally wrong.” The Mexican peso dropped sharply as Trump attacked the friend-shoring investment narrative, suggesting that Chinese manufacturers were trying to navigate around US trade protections by...

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Currency Markets Trade Mixed as Optimism Grows

The mean-reversion process that began in foreign exchange markets this summer is continuing this morning, with the dollar trading flat and other majors reversing early-year moves. A steady drumbeat of economic stimulus announcements from China is interacting with growing bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other central banks to support global risk appetite, pouring rocket fuel into equity markets and risk-sensitive currency pairs, while driving implied volatility levels lower. Inflation in France and Spain decelerated more dramatically in September than had been expected, reinforcing market bets on more easing coming at the European Central...

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Ebullience Returns

A sense of optimism is powering financial markets forward this morning, with China promising more economic stimulus, a raft of Federal Reserve speakers likely to deliver relatively-dovish messages in the hours to come, and reports suggesting that Saudi Arabia is preparing to increase oil production. Treasuries are flat, equity futures are pointing higher ahead of the North American open, and the dollar is retreating against its major counterparts, with the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar all eking out half-percentage point gains relative to yesterday’s close. In a highly unusual September announcement, the Chinese politburo said it would mobilise “necessary fiscal...

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Markets Climb on Chinese Stimulus Hopes

Risk appetite is rebounding across the currency markets after Chinese authorities unveiled a raft of stimulus measures designed to boost growth and reinvigorate market sentiment. In a carefully-choreographed announcement, the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate and lowered the amount of cash that banks need to hold in reserve by 50 basis points, freeing up money for lending. It said it would also cut the interest rate payable on existing mortgages and lower down payments on purchases of second homes. And lending facilities equivalent to almost $70 billion dollars will be made available to brokers...

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Markets Steady Ahead of Fedspeak Deluge

Financial markets are seeing consolidative trading patterns take hold after last Wednesday’s bold and decisive move from the Federal Reserve. The dollar is advancing off Friday’s lows, long-term Treasury yields are rising, equity futures are pointing to a healthy open, and the VIX “fear index” – a measure of expected volatility – is pushing lower, suggesting that policymakers succeeded in delivering an emergency-sized rate cut without convincing investors that an emergency is underway. This week, words might speak louder than actions. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will drop tomorrow, Thursday will bring durable goods orders and weekly unemployment claims,...

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