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MXN

Markets Hunker Down As Event Risk Minefield Looms

De-risking activities are dominating trading activity in financial markets this morning as participants brace for what could be the most momentous fortnight of the year. Treasury yields are climbing once again, with the ten-year now yielding 4.25 percent, the dollar is advancing against its major peers, and trade-sensitive currencies – like the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso – are flirting with year-to-date lows. Crude prices are down sharply after Israeli aircraft struck military targets in Iran over the weekend, avoiding any obvious harm to the country’s energy infrastructure and giving Tehran room to avoid another round of escalation. Implied volatility...

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Dollar Grinds Higher as Data Cadence Slows

The US dollar is trading with a consolidative bias this morning, advancing steadily against its major rivals ahead of this week’s thinly-populated data calendar. Treasury yields are up, North American equity futures are positioned for a healthy open, and oil prices are inching higher on a ratcheting up in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Markets are becoming more focused on the risks associated with the upcoming US presidential election. Option prices are beginning to ratchet up around the polling date, trade-sensitive currencies are softening, and ten-year Treasury yields are moving higher at a steady pace, with many market participants...

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Dollar Climbs on Trump Tariff Threats

The dollar is trading near a two-month high after Donald Trump doubled down on his trade threats in a widely-watched interview with Bloomberg News. “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff’,” he said, telling interviewer John Micklethwait – formerly editor-in-chief of The Economist – “It must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs as being negative and then have somebody explain to you that you’re totally wrong.” The Mexican peso dropped sharply as Trump attacked the friend-shoring investment narrative, suggesting that Chinese manufacturers were trying to navigate around US trade protections by...

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Currency Markets Trade Mixed as Optimism Grows

The mean-reversion process that began in foreign exchange markets this summer is continuing this morning, with the dollar trading flat and other majors reversing early-year moves. A steady drumbeat of economic stimulus announcements from China is interacting with growing bets on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other central banks to support global risk appetite, pouring rocket fuel into equity markets and risk-sensitive currency pairs, while driving implied volatility levels lower. Inflation in France and Spain decelerated more dramatically in September than had been expected, reinforcing market bets on more easing coming at the European Central...

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Ebullience Returns

A sense of optimism is powering financial markets forward this morning, with China promising more economic stimulus, a raft of Federal Reserve speakers likely to deliver relatively-dovish messages in the hours to come, and reports suggesting that Saudi Arabia is preparing to increase oil production. Treasuries are flat, equity futures are pointing higher ahead of the North American open, and the dollar is retreating against its major counterparts, with the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar all eking out half-percentage point gains relative to yesterday’s close. In a highly unusual September announcement, the Chinese politburo said it would mobilise “necessary fiscal...

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