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JPY

09 Oct 2023

AUD turnaround

• Risk-off/risk-on. Oil rose ~4%, but the firmer USD & dip in equities unwound overnight. Developments & Fed comments weighed on US rates.• AUD rebound. A weaker USD & improved risk sentiment boosted the AUD. Australia’s position as a net energy exporter is also AUD supportive.• AU data. Cons. confidence & bus. conditions due today. Population growth is somewhat offsetting the impact on the economy from higher rates. Events in the Middle East continue to dominate the headlines with the conflict still raging and the implications of the increased geopolitical risks across the region still being worked out. However, in...

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08 Oct 2023

Geopolitical tensions

• Middle East. Developments look set to hang over markets at the start of the new week. The USD, JPY & oil are typically supported by this type of unrest.• US jobs. Payrolls exceeded forecasts, but the underlying detail wasn’t as rosy. Markets were volatile around the data. US CPI released on Thursday.• AUD cross-currents. More negative risk sentiment can exert a bit of pressure on the AUD. But softer US inflation can offset this later in the week. The tragic weekend developments in the Middle East look set to hang over markets at the start of the new week....

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05 Oct 2023

US payrolls in focus

• Relief continues. Bond yields, oil prices & the USD lost a bit more ground overnight. BoE & US Fed comments raise doubts about the extent of further hikes.• AUD recovery. The AUD has edged up a little against the USD & on most crosses. In addition to tonight’s US labour report, US CPI is released next week.• US payrolls. Based on where things are tracking we think a larger (more negative) USD reaction could occur if the US data underwhelms. Yesterday’s moves extended a bit further overnight with markets marking time ahead of tonight’s US jobs report (11:30pm AEDT)....

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05 Oct 2023

Markets reverse yesterday’s reversal

A global relief rally is unwinding as markets take a more skeptical view on the likelihood of a shift in Federal Reserve policy. Early in yesterday’s session, a series of data releases helped diminish expectations ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report and push odds on a final 2023 rate hike back below coin-toss levels: Payroll processing firm ADP said the private sector created just 89,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 160,000 or more. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index weakened more than projected. And West Texas Intermediate prices suffered the biggest reversal this year, falling by...

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04 Oct 2023

Short-term relief or trend change?

• Market relief. Softer US ADP employment data & a lower oil price weighed on bond yields. US equities rose & the USD drifted back slightly.• AUD consolidates. The AUD has clawed back a little ground. But it remains at low levels. Since 2015 the AUD has only traded sub ~$0.63 ~1% of the time.• US data. US payrolls is the next major event (Friday AEDT). Given where things are tracking a larger (more negative) USD reaction could occur if the data disappoints. A break from the recent trend overnight with bond yields lower, equities higher, and the USD a...

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