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JPY

05 Mar 2023

China disappointment

• China targets. China’s 2023 growth target was a little lower than expected. Fiscal support also looks set to be more restrained than anticipated.• Risk sentiment. Equities rose on Friday, but the China developments, and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell could weigh on risk appetite this week.• AUD pressure. RBA widely expected to hike another 25bps. But we think there is a risk its forward-looking rate guidance is adjusted. Market attention remains on bond markets. The uptrend in global yields paused for breath on Friday, with the US 10yr falling by ~10bps to end the week back below 4%....

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02 Mar 2023

Rates still adjusting

• Higher yields. Markets continue to adjust interest rate expectations higher with inflation pressures showing limited signs of abating.• USD rebound. The larger lift in US bond yields has boosted the USD. Equity markets are looking increasingly complacent to the macro landscape.• AUD crosscurrents. Relative interest rate differentials are a AUD headwind. But the high level of commodity prices is an underlying support. The upswing in bond yields has continued with markets coming around to the view that interest rates will need to keep moving higher and stay at very elevated levels for some time to slow growth and (hopefully)...

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26 Feb 2023

Another US inflation surprise

• Higher US rates. Strong US inflation data generated another repricing in US rate expectations, propelling the USD even higher.• Fed needs to do more. Sticky inflation means the US Fed has more work to do. Positive US data can reinforce the upswing in US yields.• AUD slump. AUD is now ~6% below its early-February peak. Will this weeks Australia/China data provide an offset to the stronger USD? The outlook for US Fed policy continues to drive markets. US rate hike expectations took another leg higher on Friday, pushing US bond yields back up towards their peaks. This in turn...

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24 Feb 2023

Looming Inflation Data Reinforces Market Caution

Risk appetites and trading ranges remain subdued across the financial markets this morning as investors brace for an inflation report that could show the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening efforts are having little effect on underlying price pressures – or on overall aggregate demand. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure will land in less than half an hour, with markets prepared to see more evidence of overheating. Economists think the headline headline personal consumption expenditures deflator rose 0.5 percent month-on-month, with the annual rate holding at 5 percent. Consumer spending is seen increasing 1.4 percent from the prior month, and personal...

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23 Feb 2023

USD recovery continues

• Mixed markets. US equities are a little stronger, with US bond yields slightly lower. However, the USD remains firm.• US data focus. Initial jobless claims remain low, a sign the labour market is still tight and that the US Fed has more work to do.• AUD pressure. AUD slipped below 0.68 overnight before recovering modestly. We see further near-term downside on the back of a stronger USD. While market moves have generally been modest, underlying themes have remained the same, especially in FX markets. US equities whipped around overnight, but have ended the day in positive territory (S&P500 +0.6%),...

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