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JPY

01 Jun 2023

False dawn?

• Optimistic markets. Sentiment improves, as a ‘skip’ by the Fed at the June meeting is factored in. Equities higher, bond yields & USD a bit lower.• US labour data. AUD has been boosted by the improved risk appetite. US labour market report released tonight. This could see the USD bounce back.• Wage decision. Ahead of the US data, the minimum/award wage decision is handed down this morning. This could influence RBA expectations & the AUD. The new month has started on positive footing with risk sentiment improving. But, from our perspective, the underlying data pulse and rationale given for...

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31 May 2023

Global growth concerns

• Growth worries. Weaker than expected China PMIs added to global growth concerns. This has dampened risk sentiment. AUD touched a new ~6-month low.• AU CPI. Inflation indicator re-accelerated more than expected. Data bolsters the case for another RBA hike. Tomorrow’s minimum/award wage decision is important.• USD firm. The USD remains near its recent highs. US ISM manufacturing survey released tonight, with non-farm payrolls due on Friday. Another negative night for risk sentiment with more signs the world economic downturn is gathering pace coming through. Across equities, the EuroStoxx50 fell 1.7% and the US S&P500 was down 0.6%. This followed...

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30 May 2023

Will the China PMIs underwhelm?

• Shaky sentiment. US debt ceiling yet to be fully put to bed. US & European confidence weakened, a sign the global downturn is gathering pace.• Currency concerns. JPY weakness has seen officials fire a shot across the bow of markets. A lower currency makes the inflation fight harder.• AUD events. Today, RBA Governor Lowe speaks, the monthly CPI indicator is released, and the China PMIs are due. Some negative vibes across markets as the US and UK returned to work after their long weekend. The US debt ceiling has yet to be fully put to bed. While the in-principle...

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30 May 2023

Bulls Return Ahead of Vote on Debt Deal

A slow-motion relief rally continues to unfold across the financial markets as President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy make progress toward garnering the bipartisan support needed to pass this weekend’s debt limit deal. Equity futures are setting up for a strong open, Treasury yields are lower across the front and belly of the curve, and risk-sensitive currencies are climbing against the dollar. Many investors remain wary: some of the proposed bill’s embedded provisions are expected to take a toll on growth, and the Treasury’s renewed funding efforts are seen subtracting from overall market liquidity. We suspect these fears are...

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29 May 2023

Subdued holiday markets

• Holiday markets. Limited moves with the US, UK, & parts of Europe on holiday. In-principle agreement to raise US debt ceiling to be voted on over coming days.• Global data pulse. Global data flow picks up later this week. China PMIs (Weds), Eurozone CPI (Thurs) & US labour market report (Fri) in focus.• AUD consolidating. Global forces should act as a AUD headwind, offsetting support expected to be generated by upcoming local events. A quiet 24hrs across global markets with the US, UK, and some European countries on holiday, and no major economic data released. Across the markets that...

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