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JPY

US CPI surprise

• US CPI. Data slightly higher than forecast. This triggered a bout of market volatility. After an initial jump in yields & the USD, & drop in equities, markets reversed.• Glass half full. US yields fell as some underlying inflation trends still support the outlook for eventual Fed policy easing, though a move in March looks too soon.• AUD vol. Further bouts of AUD volatility likely given where we are in the cycle. Since the float the AUD has, on average, traded in a ~13cent range each year. Markets endured a burst of volatility overnight in the wake of the...

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Waiting on the US CPI

• Mixed markets. US equities rebounded & bond yields ticked up. Oil prices dipped. In FX, there were generally limited net moves. AUD near $0.67.• AU inflation. Headline inflation decelerated more than expected. But things are still a long way from target. RBA to lag its peers when rate cuts come through.• US CPI. December inflation data released tonight. Headline inflation forecast to nudge up, but core CPI predicted to slow. The data can generate USD volatility. Ahead of the US CPI release markets put in a mixed performance overnight. On the one side, equities bounced back with a tech...

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Trading Ranges Narrow Ahead of US Inflation Print

Currency markets remain fundamentally directionless this morning as traders batten the hatches ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation report. The DXY dollar index is modestly softer, dragged lower by an incremental decline in Treasury yields, and equity futures are setting up for another day of sideways movement. Oil prices are lending the Canadian dollar some support, with both major benchmarks rising as tensions in the Middle East ratchet higher. Houthi rebels based in Yemen fired eighteen drones, two cruise missiles and a ballistic missile at shipping in the Red Sea during European trading hours, adding to the likelihood of an assault...

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Caution Prevails, Keeping Currencies Rangebound

The dollar is performing in a mixed manner relative to its major rivals this morning as risk appetite fades amid a lack of definitive trading narratives. Investors are taking dovish comments from the Bank of Portugal’s Governor with a huge helping of salt. The euro-dollar exchange rate remained effectively unchanged after Mario Centeno told an interviewer “I don’t think we have to wait until May” to make a decision on cutting rates, “I don’t see any sign that second-round effects on wages have materialised or will materialise or that wages will put additional pressure on prices”. Odds on the European...

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Hold the line

• FX consolidation. Quiet start to the week across FX. USD consolidated with AUD treading water. US CPI the major focal point this week (released Fri AEDT).• Mixed markets. A tech sector rally boosted US equities. Oil prices fell on softer demand signals, & bond yields lost some ground.• AU data. November retail sales due today. Black Friday sales expected to have boosted spending. Tomorrow the monthly CPI indicator is released. It has been a quiet start to the week for FX markets with the major currencies range bound over the past 24hrs. The USD index has held onto its...

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