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JPY

Lofty heights

• Policy divergence. JPY continues to weaken with the BoJ’s stance continuing to diverge from the rest of the world. AUD near a multi-month high.• Fed talk. Chair Powell testifies to Congress this week. Markets still aren’t pricing in the Fed’s views. A shift up could give the USD some support.• China stimulus. More stimulus to support the faltering recovery is anticipated, but we think China may not meet the markets seemingly lofty thinking. US markets had a relatively quiet end to a busy week on Friday. US equities retreated from their 14-month highs (S&P500 -0.4%), while bond yields increased...

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Another hawkish ECB hike

• Weaker USD. ECB delivered another hawkish hike. Policy divergence between the ECB & US Fed has boosted the EUR & weighed on the USD.• AUD stronger. Compounding the softer USD was another strong local labour market report & expectations China could announce stimulus to boost growth.• BoJ today. No changes expected. But tweaks appear inevitable. JPY is at quite low levels. We think there are more upside than downside risks from here. US and European markets diverged overnight, with contrasting central bank expectations a driver. European equities eased back (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%) and bond yields rose after the ECB delivered...

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Markets soften on hawkish Fed messaging

As had been clearly telegraphed and widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve opted to hold interest rates at yesterday’s meeting. Officials said “Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” and Jerome Powell avoided committing to any further moves, instead saying the July meeting would be “live” and dependent on incoming data. More unexpectedly, new projections showed policymakers expect to deliver two additional hikes by year end. But the “dot plot”, as the Summary of Economic Projections is colloquially known, has evolved into a strange hybrid between a forecast update...

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AUD: break-out or bull-trap?

After a rather torrid May, the AUD has sprung back to life over the past few weeks. At ~$0.6820 the AUD is around the top of its ~4-month range. The AUD has also outperformed on the crosses. AUD/EUR is near its highest level since mid-March, AUD/GBP has moved above its 50-day moving average (~0.5341), diverging interest rate and macro trends have propelled AUD/NZD over ~1.10 for the first time since late-February, AUD/CNH has touched a ~2-year high, and AUD/JPY is north of ~96 (heights it hasn’t been at since last September). There has been raft of important economic events and...

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Fed’s ‘hawkish’ skip

• US Fed. Rates kept on hold, but the Fed’s message was ‘hawkish’. Fed is forecasting another ~50bps of hikes this year. Market pricing looks too low.• Intra-day volatility. Markets whipped around by the Fed decision. US retail sales & jobless claims tonight. Data could influence Fed expectations & the USD.• AUD events. Australian labour force & China activity data released today. ECB policy meeting is tonight with another 25bp rate hike expected. Markets whipped around overnight, with the US Fed policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference in focus. As was broadly expected, after hiking interest rates aggressively over...

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