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JPY

11 Sep 2023

Dollar stalls on Asian currency rebound

Central bank jawboning helped the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen stop the dollar’s advance this weekend, with the trade-weighted exchange rate roughly -0.3 percent below Friday’s close. North American equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, Treasury yields are inching higher, oil prices are slipping, and most other major currencies are firmly rangebound against the dollar. The renminbi jumped more than 1 percent in Asian trading hours after the People’s Bank of China warned that it could intervene directly in markets to squeeze short-sellers and stabilize exchange rates. “We will not hesitate on taking actions when necessary to...

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10 Sep 2023

Will the US data underwhelm?

Quiet markets. Equities consolidated on Friday. US yields & oil ticked up. In FX, the USD is tracking at high levels, with the AUD hovering just above its 2023 lows.JPY focus. Japanese officials continue to ramp up the rhetoric about JPY weakness. BoJ Governor Ueda also gave a rather ‘hawkish’ interview.Event risks. AU business conditions, US CPI, AU employment, US retail sales, the ECB meeting, & the China activity data are due this week. Without any fresh economic news global markets were restrained on Friday. Across equities, the US S&P500 was slightly higher (+0.1%), while the European EuroStoxx50 outperformed (+0.4%)...

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07 Sep 2023

AUD finding a base?

• Negative vibes. A more cautious tone overnight with equities & bond yields lower. The USD remains firm, with EUR & GBP weakening.• AUD consolidation. Despite the shaky risk backdrop the AUD has held its ground, albeit at low levels. A lot of negatives now look to be factored in• Event radar. AU business conditions, US CPI, AU employment, US retail sales, the ECB meeting, & the China activity data are due next week. A slightly cautious tone across markets overnight. Following on from the weakness in Asia the major European and US equity markets edged lower with the NASDAQ...

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07 Sep 2023

A yen for change

Sometime in the mid-seventies, the Nobel prize-winning economist Simon Kuznets is believed* to have said that there were “four types of countries in the world: developed, underdeveloped, Argentina, and Japan”. Surprisingly, not much has changed in the intervening years – both economies remain truly exceptional along a number of dimensions, with the results playing out in the foreign exchange markets. The Argentinian peso has fallen so low that politicians are – again – campaigning on (probably misguided) pledges to peg the currency to the dollar. And the Japanese yen has led the developed world in relative weakness since the pandemic....

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07 Sep 2023

Another day, another (more expensive) dollar

The greenback keeps moving from strength to strength, with the “US outperformance” trade gaining renewed momentum as risk appetite falls and signs of weakness grow more evident in other parts of the global economy. Equity futures are softening this morning as reports of a Chinese government ban on Apple devices drive the technology company’s shares lower. Yields are slightly lower at both the two- and ten-year horizons, and most major currencies are down against the dollar.  Yesterday, when the Institute for Supply Management said its index of service-sector activity had risen to a six-month high, with improvements seen in virtually...

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