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JPY

25 Sep 2023

Bond yields bounce back

• Bond yields. Long-end yields jumped up overnight. US 10yr around its highest since Q4 ’07. This & soft Eurozone growth supported the USD. EUR sub 1.06.• Mixed messages. AUD/USD lost a little ground yesterday, but AUD outperformed its European peers. Positioning metrics appear quite ‘net short’ AUD.• AUD events. Monthly AU CPI indicator due tomorrow & retail sales released on Thursday. Various factors point to a re-acceleration in inflation. After easing slightly at the end of last week bond yields jumped back up overnight, led by moves at the long-end of the curve. German and UK 10yr yields rose...

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25 Sep 2023

Markets turn negative as threat environment worsens

Markets are back on the warpath this morning, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar toward cyclical peaks. The US ten-year is holding near 16-year highs, the trade-weighted greenback is at its strongest levels in six months, risk-sensitive currencies are retreating, and global oil benchmarks keep pushing toward the $100 per barrel mark. Two major factors are bolstering the US exceptionalism trade: strong domestic demand numbers are forcing investors to capitulate in the face of the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer mantra, and risk-reward ratios in other currencies are worsening as soaring oil prices threaten to raise costs in the major energy importing regions. And...

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24 Sep 2023

Another US government shutdown looming?

• Negative vibes. Bond yields eased back & US equities continued to lose steam. The global PMIs illustrated ongoing sluggish growth momentum.• USD mixed. GBP remains on the backfoot as markets price in ‘peak’ rates. USD/JPY rose after the BoJ held steady. AUD ticked a bit higher.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI & retail sales due this week. Offshore, EZ CPI & US PCE data released. Risk of another US government shutdown also rising. The upswing in bond yields paused for breath on Friday and equity markets continued to lose steam. US and UK 10yr yields ended Friday ~6bps lower...

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22 Sep 2023

US exceptionalism trade regains momentum

A bruising week for global Wall Street continues this morning, with the dollar holding steady and major indices paring gains into the North American open. Ten-year Treasury yields are inching slightly lower after climbing to a 16-year high in yesterday’s session, paying more than 4.5 percent at one point. The moves came after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday issued forecasts showing rate cuts happening at a slower and more incremental pace than markets had previously anticipated, and after another weekly claims report beat expectations, suggesting that labour markets remain far from cooling. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell...

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21 Sep 2023

Bond yields keep rising

• Negative sentiment. Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ forecasts have continued to wash through. Long-end bond yields rose again. Equities dipped. USD consolidated.• BoE surprise. Following the weaker UK CPI the BoE surprised by keeping rates on hold. GBP weakened with markets starting to price in a rates ‘peak’.• AUD softer. AUD slipped back over the past 24hrs. AUD/JPY has fallen by ~1%. The BoJ is today. Could it spring a ‘hawkish’ surprise? Risk markets have generally remained on the defensive with long-end bond yields continuing to push higher as the US Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra continues to sink in....

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