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JPY

17 Aug 2023

Bond yields & China in focus

• Bond moves. Yields have continued to rise. The US 10-yr is at its highest since late-2007. This has exerted more pressure on equities. USD remains firm.• CNY focus. Trends in China & CNY remain in focus. Policymakers in China appear to be becoming uncomfortable with the CNY weakness.• AU jobs. Labour market data undershot expectations. Unemployment rose in July, extending the AUD weakness. But is the AUD starting to find a base? Developments in bond markets and China remain front of mind. Against a backdrop of light news and economic dataflow bond yields have risen further. Concerns that rates...

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17 Aug 2023

Dollar slips as global yields inch higher

The dollar is retreating from yesterday’s extreme levels as currency markets stage a modest and hesitant recovery against a materially-tighter financial backdrop. Benchmark Treasury yields holding near a 15-year peak on fears that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, and rates in most major advanced economies are pushing upward in sympathy. North America A record of the Fed’s July policy meeting showed officials remaining relatively hawkish. Some policymakers turned more cautious, pointing out that risks had become “more two-sided,” making it “important that the committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent over-tightening of policy against the cost...

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17 Aug 2023

Australian labour market turning point?

After a few surprisingly solid months the latest Australian labour force lottery came in weaker than expected and this has added to the downward pressure on the AUD (now ~$0.6390). In terms of the numbers employment fell by 14,600 in July, with full-time jobs declining (-24,200) after a couple of robust results. This is only the 3rd fall in employment in the past 21-months and on net the Australian economy has still added ~387,000 jobs over the past year, but nevertheless when it comes to the AUD as is often the case “when it rains it pours”. With the participation...

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16 Aug 2023

Negative vibes

• Wall of worry. China worries, sticky UK inflation & a hawkish tone in the Fed minutes weighed on risk sentiment, pushed up US yields & supported the USD.• AUD pressure. The backdrop has exerted more pressure on the AUD. The AUD is in rarefied air. Since 2015 AUD/USD has only been lower in ~2% of trading days.• AU jobs. July labour force report released today. The labour market is a lagging indicator. Consensus is looking for unemployment to tick up slightly to 3.6%. Familiar themes have continued to drive markets. On the one hand concerns about the state of...

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16 Aug 2023

Markets see clouds in the US economy’s silver lining

“In the beginning the Universe was created,” said Douglas Adams in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. “This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move”. Markets seem to be taking a similar view on yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated US retail sales report, with an aversion to risk becoming more pronounced as investors grapple with the prospect of higher long-term rates. The dollar is holding its gains and equity futures are setting up for a weaker open even as two- and ten-year Treasury yields fade from their highs. Risk-sensitive units like the Australian and...

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