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JPY

09 Jul 2024

Hold the line

• Consolidation. US stocks & yields range bound. USD index a touch firmer, but AUD holds its ground thanks to some outperformance on the crosses.• Fed speak. Chair Powell didn’t generate fireworks. Data will guide the Fed, though US labour market trends are becoming more important.• RBNZ today. No change expected. This is a review not a forecast update. Leaning against the markets ‘dovish’ pricing could see AUD/NZD slip back. In contrast to some of the moves in Europe it was another relatively quiet night in US markets with the major asset classes range bound. In Europe, nervousness about the...

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08 Jul 2024

Will Fed Chair Powell rattle markets?

• Quiet markets. Small market moves overnight with reaction to the French election result minimal. Bond yields consolidated. USD a touch firmer.• Fed commentary. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. Will he note the loosening in the jobs market & keep the door open to rate cuts later this year?• AU data. Consumer confidence & business conditions due today. Diverging macro/policy trends in Australia’s favour are AUD supportive. A quiet start to the week with the major asset markets confined to tight ranges. Reaction to the surprise result in the second round of the French parliamentary elections where the leftist alliance...

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04 Jul 2024

US payrolls in focus

• US holiday. Quiet trading with the US shut for Independence Day. European equities, yields, & EUR higher on the back of easing French political risks.• AUD upswing. Softer USD & relative macro trends supporting the AUD. AUD/USD near the top of the range it has occupied since early-January.• US jobs. US non-farm payrolls released tonight. Signs the US jobs market is cooling could bolster Fed rate cut expectations which would drag on the USD. With the US markets shut for Independence Day it was relatively quiet overnight. There was a bit of a ‘risk on’ vibe in European trading...

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03 Jul 2024

Price Action Cools As Barbecues Heat Up

Price action is turning choppy in financial markets this morning as liquidity begins to evaporate ahead of tomorrow’s July 4 holiday. Equity futures are flat ahead of a shortened trading session, fixed-income markets are seeing modest safe-haven flows, and commodities are range-bound as thinly-manned trading desks take risk off the table before Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. The dollar and Treasury yields retraced some of their post-presidential debate gains yesterday after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the US economy is showing “signs of resuming its disinflationary trend,” helping bolster the likelihood of a rate cut in September. Speaking at a...

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02 Jul 2024

Mixed signals

• Mixed markets. Divergence between US & European equities, while long-end bond yields & the USD gave back a little ground. AUD a touch firmer.• US macro. Fed Chair Powell noted there has been “quite a bit” of inflation progress. But more is needed. The ‘quits rate’ points to lower wages/inflation.• Data flow. Australian retail sales due today. UK election tomorrow. In the US, ADP employment, services ISM, & jobless claims released tonight. While there was a bit of divergence in equities overnight (the major European markets slipped back ~0.5% and the US S&P500 rose ~0.6% to be within striking...

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