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GBP

18 Sep 2023

Risk appetite falls into heavy week

Currency traders are squaring their positions this morning ahead of a series of potentially market-moving data releases and policy decisions in the coming days. The dollar is inching lower, two-year yields are holding above the 5-percent threshold, and equity futures are setting up for a softer session. The subdued open comes after a week in which Treasury yields snapped higher, stocks fell, and the greenback broke an extended winning streak. With August core consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales all coming in hot, investors began to lose hope in a rapid pivot toward looser monetary policy from the Federal...

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17 Sep 2023

Central banks in the spotlight

• Mixed markets. US equities fell back with higher bond yields & jitters about the autoworkers strike weighing on sentiment. USD & AUD consolidated.• China data. The China activity data was generally better than expected. This supports our thinking that growth momentum could be bottoming out.• Event calendar. US Fed (Thurs morning AEST), BoE (Thurs AEST), & BoJ (Fri AEST) decisions in the spotlight. European/US PMIs (Fri) also in focus. Mixed fortunes across asset classes and regions on Friday. In contrast to the lift by most major Asian and European stock markets, US equities fell back, led by the tech-sector...

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14 Sep 2023

ECB: end of the line

• Positive vibes. Risk markets supported by signals last nights ECB rate hike could be the last, more policy easing in China, & positive US retail sales.• EUR & GBP softer. The shift in relative yield spreads has weighed on EUR & GBP. AUD has held its ground, with AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP rising.• Data pulse. Also helping the AUD was a positive local employment report. Today, the market focus will be on the August China activity data. It has been a busy 24hrs with several data releases and policy decisions coming through. On net, the events have supported risk sentiment...

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13 Sep 2023

Price action slows to a crawl ahead of inflation print

The trade-weighted dollar is moving sideways, equity futures are slightly weaker, and long-term yields are creeping higher ahead of data that is expected to show core consumer price growth continuing to fade in the face of the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign. According to consensus expectations, month-over-month headline inflation accelerated to 0.6 percent in August as energy prices climbed, driving the all-items index to a 3.6-percent gain over last year. But core – widely considered a more reliable gauge of underlying inflation – is seen rising just 0.2 percent for a third month running, bringing the year-over-year increase down to 4.3...

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12 Sep 2023

US inflation cross-currents

• Mixed signals. US equities a bit lower, bond yields mixed, while oil rose. EUR rebounded following a ‘hawkish’ news article. AUD consolidates.• US inflation. The latest US CPI report is released tonight. Headline inflation is set to jump because of oil, but core inflation is predicted to slow.• Diverging trends. Australian consumer sentiment remains low, but business conditions improved. The local jobs data is released tomorrow. Markets were generally well contained overnight as participants await tonight’s US CPI report (10:30pm AEST). In bonds, the US 2yr yield drifted a bit higher (+3bps to 5.02%), while long end yields moved...

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