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GBP

08 May 2024

European central banks leading the way?

• Quiet markets. US equities consolidated, while 10yr yields ticked up. USD a touch firmer. AUD’s post RBA pull-back extended a bit further.• European divergence. Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates. This follows the Swiss National Bank. Will the ECB be next? BoE tonight. It may be more ‘dovish’.• Global activity. China trade data due today. Various leading indicators for global industrial activity, like the copper price, have been improving. Fairly narrow ranges in global markets overnight with limited new information coming through to shake things up. US equities consolidated with the S&P500 ending the day unchanged after moving higher over the...

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08 May 2024

Fedspeak Propels Dollar Higher

Treasury yields and the dollar jumped by the most in a week during yesterday’s session when Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expected the central bank to keep rates elevated for an “extended period of time” as it waits for price growth to slow on a sustained basis. Speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference, he warned “If inflation starts to tick back down or we saw some marked weakening in the labour market then that might cause us to cut back on interest rates’” but “If we get convinced eventually that inflation is embedded or entrenched now at...

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06 May 2024

Dollar Momentum Fades As Rate Cuts Return

The dollar is beginning the new week on a defensive footing after Friday’s non-farm payrolls print helped resuscitate hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields are flat, North American equity bourses are pointing to a supportive open, and currency markets are seeing a second day of broad-based risk-taking. The April jobs report showed labour market conditions easing, but remaining extremely tight. Employers added 175,000 positions, down from an upwardly-revised 315,000-job print in the prior month. The unemployment rate rose an almost indiscernible 0.03 percent, climbing from 3.83 to 3.86 percent, and marking the 27th consecutive month below...

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05 May 2024

Softer US data pressures the USD

• Positive vibes. A weaker US jobs report & ISM services data exerted more pressure on US yields & the USD. The AUD’s revival continued.• RBA meeting. Australian interest rate pricing has adjusted higher. But has it gone too far? The RBA may not match ‘hawkish’ market expectations.• Event radar. Locally the RBA (Tues) is the main event. Offshore, the Bank of England meets. In the US several Fed members are due to speak. The positive market mood stemming from the less ‘hawkish’ than feared US Fed meeting continued on Friday. Softer US jobs and services ISM data supported the...

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02 May 2024

Will the US labour market crack?

• Post Fed. US yields & the USD have remained on the backfoot after the Fed wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. JPY rebound also weighed on the USD.• US jobs. AUD revival continued. US jobs in focus tonight. Reaction likely to be binary. Weaker (stronger) result set to be AUD positive (negative).• RBA looming. RBA next Tuesday. We think the Board could discuss the merits of another hike. Diverging policy expectations are AUD supportive. The washout across markets from yesterday’s less ‘hawkish’ than feared US Fed meeting has continued. Bond yields in Europe and the US have fallen further with...

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