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GBP

Central banks in focus

• Waiting game. Ahead of this week’s key events FX markets consolidated on Friday. USD index tracked sideways. AUD near its 200-day moving average.• Event radar. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE decisions due this week. China data released today, while NZ GDP & AU jobs due on Thursday.• Central banks. Further bursts of volatility probable. Will the BoJ hike rates for the first time since 2007? Will the US Fed continue to forecast 3 cuts in 2024? With one eye on this week’s central bank meetings global markets largely consolidated on Friday. US bond yields ticked up slightly (the...

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US stagflation vibes

• Stagflation worries. US retail sales underwhelm while stronger producer prices raised concerns about the inflation outlook. US yields rose. USD a bit firmer.• AUD slips. Higher US yields exerted pressure on the AUD. But the intra-day swing was below average. Focus today will be on Japanese wage outcomes.• Upcoming events. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE meet next week. Will the BoJ finally move? On top of that the China activity data & AU jobs report are due. A few wobbles across risk markets overnight as “stagflation vibes” from the latest US retail sales and Producer Price inflation data...

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Currency Market Focus Turns Toward Fed Dot Plot

The greenback remains modestly stronger after yesterday’s data showed inflation running too hot for the Federal Reserve’s comfort. Equity investors – largely prepared for a repeat of January’s stronger-than-expected print – shrugged and kept bidding indices higher. But with core price growth topping expectations for a second month in a row, currency traders doubled down on bets interest rate differentials would remain tilted in the dollar’s favour, temporarily snapping a month-long slide in the DXY index. The “dot plot” presented after next week’s Fed meeting could prove more important than the decision itself. A material change seems unlikely, but remarkably-loose...

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Hotter US CPI taken in stride

• US CPI. US inflation slightly higher than expected. But markets were more prepared. Equities rose, & while bond yields ticked up, USD strength was minimal.• Details matter. Some of the US CPI strength likely to reverse. US Fed to remain cautious about rate cuts near-term, but that is already priced into markets.• AUD & JPY. AUD dipped a touch, & USD/JPY rose. Japan’s Rengo wage outcomes will impact BoJ expectations, USD/JPY & the broader USD. Market focus was on the latest US CPI inflation data overnight. US headline and core (i.e. ex food and energy) rose 0.4% in February...

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Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Release

The dollar’s selloff is slowing ahead of inflation numbers that could have a direct bearing on the policy outlook presented during next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Equity futures are trending upward, but Treasury yields are holding flat, and high-beta currencies like the Canadian dollar are coming under modest selling pressure as traders cut risk. February’s consumer price index is expected to show headline prices accelerating while the core measure slows – but considerable uncertainty remains around whether January’s hotter-than-expected numbers marked the beginning of a trend. If price growth remains stubbornly high, officials could reduce the number of expected rate...

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