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GBP

02 May 2024

Will the US labour market crack?

• Post Fed. US yields & the USD have remained on the backfoot after the Fed wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. JPY rebound also weighed on the USD.• US jobs. AUD revival continued. US jobs in focus tonight. Reaction likely to be binary. Weaker (stronger) result set to be AUD positive (negative).• RBA looming. RBA next Tuesday. We think the Board could discuss the merits of another hike. Diverging policy expectations are AUD supportive. The washout across markets from yesterday’s less ‘hawkish’ than feared US Fed meeting has continued. Bond yields in Europe and the US have fallen further with...

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01 May 2024

Higher for longer Fed already priced in

• Expectations matter. US Fed failed to live up to the markets “hawkish” thinking. Rates set to stay higher for longer, but this was already priced.• Yields adjust. Fed Chair Powell doesn’t see more hikes. US yields slipped back & the USD softened. AUD recovered ~1/2 of yesterday’s fall.• JPY swings. Another sharp jump in the JPY caught the markets eye after the Fed. US jobs report (Friday night) the next major market event. The US Fed meeting was in focus this morning. As per our thoughts outlined over the past week the Fed failed to live up to very...

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01 May 2024

Soaring US Yields Set Stage for Fed’s ‘Hawkish Hold’

The dollar is trading near a five-month high after data showed US wage growth accelerating, further reducing market odds on rate cuts this year. Yesterday’s update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of wage growth saw the Employment Cost Index accelerate to the fastest pace in a year, adding to last week’s inflation data in forcing markets to question whether the central bank will be able to lower interest rates from what it currently sees as restrictive levels. Two-year Treasury yields are holding above the 5 percent threshold and traders are now pricing in just a single rate cut in...

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30 Apr 2024

US Fed in the spotlight

• Market turbulence. Stronger US wage data pushed up US yields & dampened the risk sentiment. The stronger USD has seen the AUD fall back.• Regional data. Sluggish China PMIs & downside surprise in AU retail sales also weighed on the AUD. Some heat has come out of RBA rate hike bets.• Fed focus. US Fed decision/press conference the next major events. A ‘hawkish hold’ looks likely, but rate expectations already look to have moved that way. A bout of turbulence overnight with stronger than expected US wages and negative signals from business and consumer surveys dampening the mood. The...

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29 Apr 2024

JPY shenanigans

• JPY vol. USD/JPY dropped sharply yesterday. Intervention hasn’t been officially confirmed. Risk of action to prop up the weak JPY remains elevated.• AUD rise. AUD continues to grind higher. AUD is now more than 3% from its Israel/Iran risk aversion lows. China PMIs & AU retail sales due today.• Global data. Tonight, Eurozone GDP/CPI & the US Employment Cost Index (a broad wages gauge monitored by the US Fed) are released. It has been a relatively quiet start to the new week for most markets, with positive risk vibes continuing and swings in the JPY getting the most attention....

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