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GBP

12 Jan 2023

Anticipation Builds Ahead of Critical US Inflation Report

Markets are on high alert ahead of what might be the post-pandemic world’s most consequential economic data release: the US consumer price index. Consensus estimates suggest headline prices fell 0.1 percent month-over-month in December, decelerating to 6.5 percent annualized from 7.1 in the month prior. Excluding food and energy, prices are expected to rise 0.3 and 5.7 percent. The risk of a violent adjustment in foreign exchange markets is real: an above- or below-consensus print could trigger a reappraisal of the odds on a 50 basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s February meeting, and unleash sharp short-term moves in...

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10 Jan 2023

Markets Go Eerily Quiet As Data Calendar Calms

Currency markets are treading water this morning, with most majors turning in a mixed performance against the dollar ahead of Thursday’s all-important US inflation print. Treasury yields are moving in almost-imperceptible ranges, equity bourses are mostly flat, and the commodities complex is advancing incrementally as the session proceeds. The Canadian dollar is holding steady, but appears to be building a foothold that could support gains later in the week if US price growth subsides in line with expectations. Japan’s yen is trading on a more solid footing after Tokyo consumer prices jumped 4 percent year-over-year in December, topping market forecasts...

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05 Jan 2023

Conflicting narratives keep dollar rangebound

The trade-weighted dollar flatlined overnight as optimism surrounding China’s reopening process helped offset cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The pound and euro are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as falling inflation prints put pressure on yields, and the Canadian dollar is down slightly on the day – but has gained on a year-to-date basis along with other commodity-linked currencies. Currency markets shrugged yesterday when a record of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting was released, showing that officials thought “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation would be needed before rate hikes could pause. Central bankers warned “an unwarranted easing...

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16 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Festive Cheer Drains Out of Markets As Central Banks Remain Hawkish Into Year End

After a bruising session yesterday, risk-sensitive currencies are setting up for another day of losses. The greenback is firmer, yields are higher, and commodity prices are weaker after the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish-than-expected stance on Wednesday’s meeting, Europe’s central banks followed suit with their own 50-basis point hikes, and data pointed to a slowdown in American consumer spending. November retail sales tumbled 0.6 percent from the prior month, falling more than expected as price growth slowed and spending patterns shifted. So-called “control group” sales, which exclude building materials, vehicle parts and gas station sales, dropped 0.2 percent, while...

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15 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Risk Appetite Stabilizes After Fed Decision, Dollar Remains Weak

All is not calm and all is not bright in financial markets this morning, but price action remains surprisingly restrained after yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision. Equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, yet interest rates are stable, the dollar is soft, and most major currencies are trading within ranges established earlier in the week. The Fed tried to deliver an overtly-hawkish message: An updated dot plot showed the median member of the Federal Open Market Committee thinks interest rates will climb above 5.1 percent next year – well above market levels – and seven of nineteen said they...

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