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GBP

17 Mar 2023

The Morning After the Night Before

After a brutal week, markets are in hangover mode, laying on the sofa, drinking as much liquidity as they can, and remaining ready to puke at any time. Risk appetites are reviving and major equity indices are poised to extend gains after Credit Suisse said it would stabilize its balance sheet with 50 billion francs borrowed from the Swiss National Bank, and a group of big US banks agreed to inject $30 billion into First Republic Bank. Treasury yields are seeing bifurcated moves, with the two year rising as the ten-year falls, and the dollar is weakening. Oil and other commodities...

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10 Mar 2023

Contagion

A broad selloff in the US banking sector has wiped out billions of dollars in market value and is lowering expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The rout began when a rate-related decline in the value of bond holdings, paired with a related drop in technology-sector deposits, forced SVB Financial Group—parent of Silicon Valley Bank—to raise capital through a share sale and sell roughly $21 billion in securities at a loss. Its shares are down more than 79 percent from yesterday’s open, and the financial sector is receiving a pummelling across the board. Market-implied expectations for the Fed...

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07 Mar 2023

Hawks in the Fed nest

• Hawkish Fed. Chair Powell pointed to rates rising even higher than previously thought, with the door to larger hikes still open.• Market repricing. US rate expectations have risen, supporting the USD. While the outlook for the RBA has been pared back following tweaks to its guidance.• AUD slump. The diverging RBA and Fed outlooks has weighed on the AUD. The shift in thinking can keep the AUD under pressure near-term. Market attention was on US Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional Testimony overnight, and he didn’t disappoint. In line with our thinking, which we have highlighted over the past few days,...

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07 Mar 2023

Pre-Powell Caution Fades

The dollar is back on the defensive, yields are slipping, and equity futures are climbing as market participants bet that risks associated with today’s Federal Reserve Congressional testimony are largely priced in. Commodity-linked currencies are up slightly in a modest reversal from yesterday’s China-related selloff, while safe havens like the yen and Swiss franc are seeing softer demand. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate for a tenth consecutive time, but dropped a reference to further increases, hinting only that “further tightening” would be needed. Australian rates have climbed a cumulative 350 basis points since last May, and...

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06 Mar 2023

Currencies Stabilize As Pivotal Week Begins

Investors are bracing for a momentous week, with Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony, three major central bank meetings, and the February non-farm payrolls report combining to set the stage for erratic price action in currency markets. The dollar is climbing, yields are ticking lower, and the euro and pound are tightly rangebound. Commodity-linked currencies sold off over the weekend as China’s leadership unveiled a more cautious growth agenda than had been expected. Work documents released during the National Party Congress outlined plans to increase state outlays and expand the budget deficit, but Beijing set its headline gross domestic product target at...

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