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GBP

05 Sep 2022

Market Wire: Euro Tumbles as Russia Confirms Political Motivations for Gas Shutdown

European natural gas prices jumped more than 35 percent and the euro slid this morning after the Kremlin appeared to confirm that gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would not resume until Western sanctions were lifted. The Financial Times and the Interfax news agency quoted Russian press secretary Dmitry Peskov saying, “The problems pumping gas came about because of the sanctions western countries introduced against our country and several companies. There are no other reasons that could have caused this pumping problem”. Russian energy giant Gazprom had previously claimed increasingly-frequent shutdowns were technical issues, resulting from an inability...

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17 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Fade Ahead of Potentially-Sobering Fed Minutes

Investors are bracing for hawkish language when the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its recent policy meeting this afternoon. Equity futures are under pressure, ten-year Treasury yields are ticking higher, and the dollar is inching forward against most of its major rivals. Inflation in the United Kingdom hit 10.1 percent in July, up from a year-over-year pace of 9.4 percent in June as surging food and energy prices cut living standards. Data released by the Office for National Statistics this morning showed the fastest increase in headline consumer prices in more than four decades, paired with a much hotter-than-expected rise...

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16 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Keeps Rising. We Don’t Know Why.

The dollar is climbing for a second day, but coherent explanations for the move are in short supply. One could argue that investors are clinging to safe havens as the prospect of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy darkens the outlook, but China’s peculiar growth model means it subtracts net demand from the rest of the world, and commodity-linked and growth-sensitive currencies appear to be holding ground so far. Europe is relatively quiet. The pound exhibited no discernible reaction earlier this morning on signs of cooling in the British labour market, and the euro remains under pressure on news...

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12 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Risk Appetite Grows

Sometimes, sentiment in markets can defy easy explanation, requiring lots of nuance and many caveats to describe. At other times, the mood be summed up on the front of a Hallmark card. Today, it’s a 50th birthday card that says “it’s all downhill from here”. Investors remain convinced a softening economy and weaker price pressures will convince the Federal Reserve to slow rate increases – leading to a loosening in financial conditions that supports asset prices. Long-term Treasury yields are down, and the trade-weighted dollar is headed for its steepest weekly loss in at least two months. Commodity prices are...

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10 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: A Calm Before the Storm Before the Calm Settles Over Markets

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Investors cut exposures ahead of this morning’s critically-important inflation print, leaving most major currency pairs unchanged in overnight trading. The dollar is modestly weaker, and the Treasury curve remains deeply inverted, with two-year yields exceeding their ten-year equivalents by almost 50 basis points – the most since 2000, and a sign that investors expect the economy to fall into a recession. Markets expect inflation pressures to subside somewhat, with the headline measure rising 8.7 percent year-over-year in July, down from 9.1 percent in June. The core measure is seen rising to 6.1 percent from 5.9 percent...

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