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GBP

12 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Markets prepare to close out the year with a bang

The dollar is softer, Treasury yields are slumping, and implied volatility levels are creeping higher as an action-packed week begins in financial markets. Equity futures are pointing to a slightly stronger open after Friday’s selloff, and risk-sensitive currencies are edging upward. The pound is slightly stronger after the Office for National Statistics said the economy grew by 0.5 percent in October after shrinking 0.6 percent in September. This beat consensus forecasts for a 0.4-percent expansion, and helped show that a surge in the “moron risk premium” (to borrow Dario Perkin’s term) during the Truss government’s brief time in power has...

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09 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Volatility falls in the run-up to an eventful week

The dollar is setting up for a third day of losses even as markets prepare for an onslaught of potential volatility catalysts in the week ahead. Economists think the US will report a 7.3-percent rise in headline consumer prices when it drops November’s data on Tuesday – confirming a steady easing in inflation pressures. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce another half-percentage-point hike on Wednesday, and publish an updated set of policy projections showing a gradual deceleration in coming months. The European Central Bank and Bank of England will probably deliver their own half-point hikes on Thursday. Traders will...

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02 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Greenback continues to tumble ahead of jobs report

The dollar continued its descent overnight as traders bet on a weaker jobs report and a slower pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The trade-weighted greenback is down almost 1.5 percent this week, floating near a four-month low as American yields come under pressure and interest rate differentials shrink in favour of other major currencies. The benchmark ten-year US treasury yield is holding near 1.51 percent, down sharply after Jerome Powell’s less-hawkish-than-expected speech on Wednesday. Yesterday’s data showed American consumer spending hitting new heights, even as inflation pressures cooled. Supported by robust income gains and a falling savings...

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23 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Markets go quiet as Fed minutes and turkey loom ahead

Most major currency pairs are caught in tight trading ranges as traders brace for minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting and liquidity ebbs ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. The dollar is modestly weaker, and Treasury yields are holding steady. The euro is trading on a slightly stronger footing after sentiment data turned higher, mitigating fears of an even sharper downturn. S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 47.8 from 47.3 in October – still below the 50 threshold separating contraction from expansion, but indicative of an improvement in confidence as the bloc grapples with a historic energy...

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17 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Strong US retail sales prompt Fed second-guessing, lifting the dollar

Equity futures are pointing to a weaker session, yields are holding ground, and the dollar is edging upward as the impact of yesterday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales report continues to reverberate across the economic landscape. American consumers showed no sign of slowing spending in October, with receipts rising for basic inputs like gas and food, along with higher-value items like furniture and new cars – a dynamic that suggests household balance sheets continue to support increased consumption levels. If this is sustained, the implications for Federal Reserve policy are clear: rates will have to climb higher than currently assumed. Chancellor Jeremy...

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