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Pound hawkishness looks overdone.

The British pound is performing remarkably well, with a substantial shift up in interest rate expectations following a string of better-than-predicted data prints, re-accelerating core inflation, and aggressive Bank of England policy tightening underpinning its move upward. It is holding near ten-month highs against the euro and fourteen-month highs against the dollar, and is the strongest in eight years relative to the yen. But – in contrast to our thoughts around some other currencies such as the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan – we believe there is now a lot of good news factored into the exchange rate. Incoming events and data could be hard pressed to exceed current lofty expectations.


Cumulative change in interest rates since October 2021, %

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