Search
Close this search box.

Explore the world.

Assess underlying fundamentals and market conditions in the world's major economies.

Americas

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Connect with us.

Learn more about Corpay Cross-Border and the currency research team.

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

The laws of economic gravity have not been repealed.

Growth through much of the post-pandemic period has defied traditional business-cycle analysis, and the noise-to-signal ratio in economic data remains extraordinarily high. Yet the sheer breadth and diversity of recession indicators that are currently flashing red in developed economies – inverted yield curves, tighter bank lending standards, weak manufacturing activity and depressed consumer confidence – would suggest that a deepening slowdown is underway.

We think global growth rates will slow sequentially in the third and fourth quarters as the lagging impact of higher rates hits home and household demand continues to normalise relative to pre-pandemic levels. Corporate labour hoarding and a slow wind-down in excess savings could push the bottoming-out point into early 2024, but the downturn – and eventual recovery – could be prolonged if inflation-fearing central banks keep policy settings in restrictive territory.

Spread between 2- and 10-year government bonds, %

Easing Wagers Pull Back Slightly as Wariness Returns
China data in focus
Soft Landing Hopes Drive Dollar Lower
AUD outperformance to continue?
US inflation jolts the AUD
US Inflation Stabilises and Spending Slows, Supporting Fed Easing