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United States

Economics

Markets
Economics

United States

Real Gross Domestic Product

Contributors to real gross domestic product growth, quarter-over-quarter change, annualized rate, updates quarterly

Measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the economy. Comprises private consumption and investment, inventory buildup, government spending and net exports. Markets watch this indicator to gauge the strength and composition of growth.

United States

Yield Curve

10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year, %,

Measures the gap between long-term and short-term government borrowing rates - in this case between 10- and 2-year Treasury instruments. Because investors normally require more compensation for taking longer-term risk, the yield curve is typically positively-sloped. But an inverted curve can appear when investors believe interest rates will decline in the future - a situation that can arise when inflation is seen subsiding, or when a recession is expected. An inversion of the yield curve has preceded every US recession for the past half century.

United States

Non-Farm Payrolls

Non-farm payrolls, monthly change, 3-month average change, thousands, SA, updates monthly

Measures the number of jobs added in the United States over the previous month. The number is typically released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and is viewed by investors as a critical indicator of the overall economic health of the US economy, and as a key driver of Federal Reserve policy. The 3-month average helps smooth out volatility, and helps illuminate the underlying trend.

United States

Unemployment Rate

Unemployment rate and year-over-year wage growth for production and non-supervisory workers, SA, updates monthly

The percentage of the labour force currently not working but actively seeking employment, alongside year-over-year wage growth for production and non-supervisory workers. Markets closely monitor movements in unemployment and wages because they provide a real-time signal of the economy’s cyclical position. Tight labour markets and accelerating pay growth can indicate rising demand pressures and an increased risk of inflation, while rising unemployment and slowing wages typically point to cooling activity and easing price pressures. Together, these indicators help shape expectations for monetary policy, growth, and financial-market conditions.

United States

Personal Consumption Expenditures

All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA

The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index is a measure of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption, and is reported in two ways: comprehensively, using all categories, and more narrowly, excluding highly-volatile food and energy costs. The latter is known as the Core measure, and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

United States

Consumer Prices

Consumer Price Indices, Annual Change, %, NSA, Updates Monthly

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the change over time in the average prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports both a “All Items” inflation number that includes all items, and a “Core” number that strips out more volatile food and energy prices. "Services ex. Energy" captures non-tangible products with energy services excluded, and the "core-core" measure is a special aggregate that includes all items less food, shelter, energy, and used cars and trucks.

United States

Cumulative Change in Prices

Cumulative Change in Selected Price Indices Since January 2000, %, SA

The Cumulative Change in Prices chart shows percentage price changes for a select group of goods and services relative to a January 2000 baseline. The calculations are derived from Bureau of Labor Statistics detailed tables, and are meant to illustrate relative price divergences across categories.

United States

Trade Balance

Goods and Services Trade Balance, total, and ex.petroleum, billions USD, SA, updates monthly

Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported - generating a trade surplus - and a negative number indicates a deficit. Trade imbalances may reflect fleeting differences in growth rates or more permanent factors in the composition of growth or the endowment and price of natural resources.

United States

Policy Rate

Fed Fund target range, mid-point

The Federal Funds target range is the target interest rate band set by the Federal Open Market Committee. This is the rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight, and influences short-term rates across the global financial system.

United States

Money Supply Growth

M2 Money Supply, Annual Change, %, SA, Updates Monthly

M2 Money Supply is a measure of currency that includes cash, checking deposits, and non-cash assets that can easily be converted into cash. Markets don’t typically respond directly to changes in M2, but growth in the money supply can influence inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates over longer time horizons.

United States

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation), Billions USD

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet is a weekly financial statement that shows what the central bank owes and owns. The Fed’s assets consist primarily of Treasury instruments and agency mortgage-backed securities. Its liabilities are mostly currency in circulation, commercial bank reserves, and reverse repurchase agreements collateralized using Treasury securities. The balance sheet is used to influence interest rates - when officials want to stimulate the economy, it expands, and when they wish to tighten financial conditions, it shrinks.

United States

Debt Ratios

Credit to General Government, Non-Financial Corporate, and Household Sectors, % of Gross Domestic Product at Market Value

Aggregate Debt Ratios measure the total borrowing of the general government, non-financial corporate, and household sectors, expressed as a share of gross domestic product. Total debt is followed by investors as a gauge of the vulnerability of an economy to financial shocks. An overly fast pace of debt growth is also frequently associated with a buildup of unproductive investment and excessively high asset valuations.

United States

Net International Investment Position

Net International Investment Position, Billions USD, Updates Annually

The net international investment position is the difference between the external financial assets and liabilities of a nation. A nation with a positive position is a creditor nation and is generally considered a safe haven in financial markets. A nation with a negative position is a debtor nation, with deeper balance of payments vulnerabilities.

Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Markets climb on Iran optimism
01 April, 2026
Markets are soaring after US President Donald Trump announced an end to the war in Iran, saying that he and parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf had “really hit it off” during a FaceTime call...
Sentiment vs reality
31 March, 2026
• Positive vibes. ‘Glass half full’ markets buoyed by US/Iran comments. US equities rose, oil fell. USD weaker. AUD & NZD claw back some lost ground.• Economic reality. Still more water...
Market stress eases on reports of a potential shift in US Mideast strategy
31 March, 2026
Financial markets are staging yet another relief rally after the Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump is considering declaring victory in the Iran conflict without establishing control over the...
Mideast conflict deepens, threatening global markets
30 March, 2026
The dollar is on course for its strongest monthly performance since July and Brent crude is tracking what could be a record monthly gain as the US-Israeli war against Iran devolves into a protracted regional...
War, what is it good for?
29 March, 2026
• Conflict concerns. Risk sentiment negative. Oil prices higher. Equities lower. USD edging up. AUD & NZD on the backfoot. AUD ~4.7% from its March peak.• Global economy. More volatility likely. Impact...
Rattled markets
26 March, 2026
• Negative vibes. Ongoing concerns about the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment. Equities lower, oil & yields higher. USD firmer. AUD under pressure.• Twists & turns. Situation in Middle...
Iran optimism fades, leaving FX markets bracing for more turbulence
26 March, 2026
Good morning. Risk appetite is deteriorating across the financial system as the Middle East conflict shows little sign of easing ahead of President Trump’s deadline for resuming military strikes...
Markets rally on peace hopes
25 March, 2026
A wave of cautious optimism is washing over financial markets after the United States reportedly offered Iran a 15-point peace plan, reinforcing the belief that Washington is looking for an exit from the...
Oil prices retrace higher as Mideast conflict continues
24 March, 2026
Energy prices are ratcheting higher once again as fighting in the Middle East rages unabated, suggesting that President Donald Trump’s efforts to find a diplomatic off-ramp have not met with success thus...
Twists & turns
23 March, 2026
• Risk reversal. Comments by Pres. Trump saw oil prices fall & sentiment improve. USD weaker. AUD ticked up, but AUD also underperforms on crosses.• Fragile markets. Situation in Middle East remains...

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