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GBP

05 Jun 2023

A matter of when, not if the RBA moves again

• US labour market. Another punchy US payrolls report. US yields rose, as did the USD. Broader risk sentiment remains positive.• Limited offshore data. Global event calendar is limited this week. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia announced a cut to its oil production.• RBA in focus. Will the RBA deliver another hike this week? Markets factoring in a ~40% chance. Given pricing, there could be an asymmetric AUD reaction. Risk sentiment remained positive at the end of last week. Equities added to recent gains with the US S&P500 rising by another ~1.5%. The S&P500 is now at its highest level...

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31 May 2023

Global growth concerns

• Growth worries. Weaker than expected China PMIs added to global growth concerns. This has dampened risk sentiment. AUD touched a new ~6-month low.• AU CPI. Inflation indicator re-accelerated more than expected. Data bolsters the case for another RBA hike. Tomorrow’s minimum/award wage decision is important.• USD firm. The USD remains near its recent highs. US ISM manufacturing survey released tonight, with non-farm payrolls due on Friday. Another negative night for risk sentiment with more signs the world economic downturn is gathering pace coming through. Across equities, the EuroStoxx50 fell 1.7% and the US S&P500 was down 0.6%. This followed...

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31 May 2023

Dollar Strengthens into Month End

As the last trading day of the month begins, it’s clear that equity investors aren’t following the “sell in May and go away” dictum, but others are growing more cautious on an increasingly-bifurcated worldwide growth outlook. US Treasury yields – standing in for US growth expectations – continue to climb, while oil prices – a proxy for global demand – are broadly lower, with both key benchmarks down almost 3-percent overnight and off nearly 10 percent for the month. The trade-weighted dollar looks set to end the month having gained nearly 2.75 percent, with higher US yields and increasing scepticism on...

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28 May 2023

Debt ceiling deal (nearly) done

• US debt ceiling. An agreement to raise the ceiling looks to have been reached. It must now be voted on by both chambers of Congress.• Back to fundamentals. Removing a tail risk should see markets refocus on the policy outlook. US inflation is still too high. Another strong labour market report should be USD supportive.• AUD cross-currents. AUD found some support. Shift in relative interest rate expectations & softer global growth pulse likely to limit the AUD’s rebound. Markets ended last week on more positive footing, with equities rising (the US S&P500 rose 1.3% while the tech-focused NASDAQ outperformed...

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26 May 2023

Hot inflation and spending numbers put a summer rate hike firmly on the Fed’s table

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated last month, helping lift the likelihood of another rate hike at one of the central bank’s next two meetings, while helping put a floor under Treasury yields and the dollar. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the core consumer expenditures price index rose a faster-than-anticipated 0.4 percent in April from the month prior, up 4.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, beating market expectations for a 0.3-percent gain. Consumer spending climbed 0.5-percent and personal income inched 0.4 percent higher month-over-month, with pandemic-era savings and higher asset values continuing to fuel extraordinarily-strong levels of consumption...

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