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GBP

09 May 2023

US CPI in focus

• Cautious tone. US debt ceiling concerns, more signs of a global slowdown, & tonight’s US CPI inflation data are on investors minds.• US CPI. Markets now assuming no further Fed rate hikes & are factoring in over two cuts by year-end. Another high core inflation print could see rate cut bets pared back, supporting the USD.• Budget relief. Targeted measures aimed at low income households should provide some cost of living relief. But will it lead to more inflation down the track? Markets traded a bit more cautiously overnight with US debt ceiling concerns, more signs of a global...

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08 May 2023

AUD holding firm

• Calmer markets. US equities flat overnight, while oil & base metals edged a bit higher. US bond yields rose, with the AUD hovering just under ~$0.68• No credit crunch. Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey didn’t signal an imminent credit crunch. Rather, conditions are tightening inline with higher rates.• AUD events. Consumer sentiment, Q1 retail sales volumes, China trade data, & the Federal Budget released today. US CPI is out tomorrow night. A relatively quiet and uneventful start to the new week. Following the strong rise on Friday, US equities were flat overnight. By contrast, energy prices added to their...

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08 May 2023

Dollar weakens as markets brace for credit contraction

The dollar is weaker against all of its major counterparts – except the yen – this morning as investors await data that should confirm a sharp contraction in US credit growth after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in early March. Two- and ten-year yields are holding steady, futures are pointing to a mixed open for North American equities, and commodity prices are creeping higher. The yen reversed a brief post-Golden Week rally in the overnight session after a record of the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting showed officials remaining committed to “large-scale easing”, with supply chain constraints easing, commodity prices coming...

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03 May 2023

Hopes for Fed pause kick dollar lower

Equity futures are climbing, Treasury yields are coming down, and the dollar is pushing lower as investors position ahead of what many expect will become the Federal Reserve’s last rate hike in this tightening cycle. Risk appetite remains diminished after yesterday’s session brought a decline in job openings, a softening in durable goods orders, and evidence of worsening stress in the regional US banking sector – but expectations for more accommodative policy settings later this year are helping support narrowly-held gains across a number of asset classes.  Rowing against the overall dollar-negative tide, the Australian dollar is gradually giving back some...

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01 May 2023

Will the RBA surprise?

• US yields rise. US bond yields jumped up overnight, supporting the USD Index. The US ISM manufacturing survey was a bit better than expected.• RBA in focus. We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate steady at 3.6%, however based on the tight labour market, we believe odds of a move may be a little higher than what markets are pricing.• AUD risks. A RBA ‘surprise’ would see the AUD spike higher, however the slowing global economy and outlook for another US Fed rate hike later this week are ongoing headwinds. Outside of a jump up in US...

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