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GBP

16 May 2023

Trading ranges shrink ahead of action-packed day

Currency markets are seeing subdued price action this morning as participants stay sidelined in a catalyst-poor environment. Both the euro and pound are holding modest gains and the dollar is slightly weaker, with three-month implied volatility levels trading near the lowest levels in a year as monetary policy expectations crystallize and movement in the fixed income space slows to a crawl. Commodity-linked and Antipodean currencies are weaker after traders responded to softer-than-expected Chinese economic activity data by marking down demand forecasts. Last night’s official data showed industrial output in the world’s second largest economy expanding 5.6 percent in April from a year...

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15 May 2023

Dollar retreats on hopes for debt ceiling deal

A more risk-supportive tone is evident across currency markets this morning after Treasury Secretary Yellen said debt ceiling negotiations were making progress. Speaking on the sidelines of the G7 finance minister meeting in Japan, she said “I’m hopeful. I think the negotiations are very active. I’m told they have found some areas of agreement”. Treasury yields and equity futures are up, and most major currencies are advancing against the dollar. The cadence of economic events will slow this week, with a string of central bank speakers competing with second-tier data releases in Europe and Asia for market attention.  Today’s Federal Reserve...

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11 May 2023

Global growth worries re-emerge

• Growth worries. Global growth concerns re-emerged after a run of soft data, particularly out of China. Copper is at its lowest since late-November.• Risk off tone. Bond yields fell back & the USD strengthened. The Bank of England hiked again, but questions about how much more it will do remain.• AUD weaker. The negative backdrop has seen the AUD underperform. We expect this challenging environment to remain in place for a while yet. Concerns about global growth picked up overnight following a string of softer than anticipated data, particularly out of China. US equity markets eased modestly (S&P500 -0.2%),...

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10 May 2023

Has Fed rate cut pricing gone too far?

• US inflation. Some tentative signs the US inflation pulse is cooling. But core inflation remains a long way from the Fed’s target.• Fed pricing. Interest rate markets appear too eager to price in the Fed cutting cycle. Expectations that cuts could start as soon as July look misplaced.• AUD resistance. AUD ticked up, but again found resistance ~$0.68. Another Bank of England rate hike & hawkish tone could see AUD/GBP slip back. Mixed fortunes and choppy trade across markets, with the latest US inflation print in focus overnight. US equities endured some intra-day volatility but ended the day in...

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10 May 2023

US inflation slows, providing lift to global asset prices

With the Ukraine energy shock falling out of year-over-year calculations and goods price growth continuing its descent, US consumer inflation slowed slightly more than expected last month. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 4.9 percent in April from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly below the 5.0 percent consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. Energy costs climbed 0.6 percent month-over-month, while the food index remained unchanged. New vehicles fell by -0.2 percent more...

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