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GBP

10 Sep 2023

Will the US data underwhelm?

Quiet markets. Equities consolidated on Friday. US yields & oil ticked up. In FX, the USD is tracking at high levels, with the AUD hovering just above its 2023 lows.JPY focus. Japanese officials continue to ramp up the rhetoric about JPY weakness. BoJ Governor Ueda also gave a rather ‘hawkish’ interview.Event risks. AU business conditions, US CPI, AU employment, US retail sales, the ECB meeting, & the China activity data are due this week. Without any fresh economic news global markets were restrained on Friday. Across equities, the US S&P500 was slightly higher (+0.1%), while the European EuroStoxx50 outperformed (+0.4%)...

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07 Sep 2023

AUD finding a base?

• Negative vibes. A more cautious tone overnight with equities & bond yields lower. The USD remains firm, with EUR & GBP weakening.• AUD consolidation. Despite the shaky risk backdrop the AUD has held its ground, albeit at low levels. A lot of negatives now look to be factored in• Event radar. AU business conditions, US CPI, AU employment, US retail sales, the ECB meeting, & the China activity data are due next week. A slightly cautious tone across markets overnight. Following on from the weakness in Asia the major European and US equity markets edged lower with the NASDAQ...

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06 Sep 2023

USD remains high

• Higher for longer. Solid US services ISM data & rhetoric from central bankers has boosted bond yields. The USD remains near its recent highs.• AUD stabilises. After a difficult run the AUD has consolidated, albeit at low levels. Q2 GDP was on net a bit better than expected with population growth supportive.• Event radar. RBA Governor Lowe gives his last speech (“Some closing remarks”) today. China trade & US jobless claims data are also released. The USD has held its ground and continues to track near multi-month or year-to-date highs against the other major currencies. Data wise, the US...

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05 Sep 2023

AUD battered & bruised

• Stronger USD. Softer data out of China & higher US bond yields on the back of a lift in oil has supported the USD. The JPY, AUD, & NZD hit fresh 2023 lows.• AUD underperformance. The AUD has weakened. As expected the RBA kept rates on hold, though it retained its mild conditional tightening bias.• Relative expectations. We think a lot of positives are factored into the USD & negative AUD sentiment is high. AU Q2 GDP & US services ISM released today. The USD has strengthened over the past 24hrs. Softer than expected second tier China Caixin Services...

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05 Sep 2023

Lowered expectations

As a long-ago MadTV skit illustrated, lowered expectations can be the key to happiness – in dating, and in life. Something similar applies in the currency markets, where – to paraphrase the behavioural investing expert Michael Mauboussin – traders need to assess the level of expected performance embedded in exchange rates and then assess the likelihood of a revision in expectations. If expectations seem poorly aligned with future results, volatility is likely ahead. Our turnover-weighted measure of economic surprise indices, which represents the gap between consensus forecasts and official data across the major currencies relative to the United States, suggests...

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