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EUR

28 Apr 2024

US Fed & JPY trends in focus

• Upbeat tone. Equities rose while yields drifted back on Friday. The JPY’s slide continued. The shift in RBA pricing helped the AUD outperform last week.• Priced in? A ‘hawkish hold’ expected from the US Fed. Rates markets already look to be factoring that in. A lot of positives appear priced into the USD.• Event radar. Globally focus will be on the China PMIs (Tues), various US labour stats (including payrolls on Friday), & the US Fed meeting (Thurs). Risk sentiment ended last week on positive footing. European and US equities rose with the S&P500’s 1% lift on the back...

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26 Apr 2024

Markets Mark Time Into Key US Inflation Print

Good morning, and welcome back. The US dollar and Treasury yields are holding steady at elevated levels after a first-quarter gross domestic product report pushed easing expectations further out. North American equity indices are advancing in the premarket on the back of another set of monster earnings releases from Microsoft and Alphabet. Oil prices are stable, and risk-sensitive currencies are eking out small gains on the crosses. Data out yesterday morning showed quarterly inflation accelerating for the first time in a year, even as the American economy slowed more than expected. The core personal consumption expenditures deflator rose at an...

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25 Apr 2024

Stagflation worries return

• Stagflation concerns. Slower US growth & sticky inflation rattled nerves. US yields rose. Equities slipped back. But on net the USD eased.• AUD rebound. The positive Q1 Australian CPI surprise & repricing in RBA rate expectations has underpinned the AUD over the past few days.• BoJ today. No changes expected, but upgrades to inflation forecasts could see the BoJ deliver a ‘hawkish’ message. JPY intervention risks still elevated. The Q1 US GDP report rattled a few market nerves overnight as “stagflation” concerns (i.e. slow growth and high inflation) returned. Bond yields rose with rates in the US rising by...

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23 Apr 2024

Currencies Stabilise as Expected Growth Differentials Narrow

The dollar is holding steady and Treasuries are stable ahead of auctions that could see yields hold above the 5-percent threshold for the first time since November. The US will sell a record $69 billion in two-year notes later today, followed by $70 billion in five-year paper tomorrow, and another $44 billion in seven-year maturities on Thursday, testing investor demand for yields that could look attractive if the Federal Reserve eases aggressively in the latter half of the year – but might look too cheap if rate cuts are further delayed. The “term premium” – the extra compensation investors demand...

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22 Apr 2024

Will the positive vibes last?

• Positive tone. Equities rose & bond yields slipped back. No new news was good news for markets. AUD edged higher & outperformed on the crosses.• Business PMIs. European & US PMIs released today. Leading indicators point to a pick up in global industrial activity over coming months.• AU CPI. Australian quarterly inflation due tomorrow. Signs the improvement in core inflation is stalling could push out RBA rate cut expectations. No news is good news with the limited new economic information and a simmering down of Middle East tensions supporting risk sentiment overnight. Equities rose with the US S&P500 (+0.9%)...

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