EUR

The European Central Bank’s economic projections look increasingly over-optimistic, with a vast array of indicators pointing to a potential double-dip downturn in the common currency area by the end of the year. Support to growth from lower energy prices has faded, housing prices are negative or falling in most core economies, corporate insolvencies are creeping higher as earnings weaken, and S&P’s euro area composite purchasing manager index slipped back into contractionary territory in June. Further weakness beckons: Exports to both of the euro area’s largest markets – China and the United States – are looking vulnerable as the global manufacturing...

We think the euro could continue to appreciate against the dollar into the early autumn on expectations for a divergence in policy between the European Central Bank and its US counterpart, but we hold weaker-than-consensus views on the currency’s longer-term performance. Until economic surprise indices turn in the euro area’s favour and the Federal Reserve ends its tightening cycle in a decisive manner, we suspect the exchange rate will have difficulty sustaining levels above the 1.15 threshold. Economic Surprise Indices