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EUR

18 Apr 2023

China’s sector divergence & AUD/EUR

China’s activity batch for March, which included Q1 GDP, confirmed that the economic rebound following the shift away from the COVID zero policy is unfolding. GDP growth was a bit stronger than predicted, with China’s economy expanding by 2.2% over Q1. As a result, annual growth momentum stepped up to 4.5%pa. A look across the underlying drivers shows that, as per other economies when COVID health/mobility restrictions were lifted, spending by households is doing the heavy lifting as pent-up demand is unleashed. Retail sales rose 5.8%pa over Q1 compared to the same period last year. Less encouraging was the underwhelming...

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17 Apr 2023

China data in focus

• USD firmer. A further rebound in US bond yields on the back of stronger US data and comments by a Fed official has supported the USD.• China focus. China data, which includes Q1 GDP, released today. Growth should mechanically lift following the end of COVID-zero. But are expectations too high?• AUD range trading. AUD held up in the face of a firmer USD overnight. The China data could generate some AUD volatility today. The rebound in the USD Index has continued, with the USD stronger against the other major currencies over the past 24hrs. EUR has dipped back towards...

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16 Apr 2023

Will the USD recovery continue?

• USD rebound. The lift in US inflation expectations and hawkish Fed comments boosted US interest rate pricing and supported the USD.• AUD falls back. The bounce back in the USD has weighed on the AUD. The China data batch is the main AUD event this week.• AUD/NZD edging higher. NZ CPI inflation released later this week. A result close to consensus should reinforce thinking the RBNZ has reached a rate peak. The USD bounced back on Friday, with Thursday’s losses unwound. US economic data and ‘hawkish’ comments from a key Federal Reserve official boosted US interest rate expectations and...

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14 Apr 2023

Volatility Trends Lower as Global Monetary Tightening Cycle Winds Down

Markets are trading sideways this morning after the latest producer price data brought more evidence of an easing in inflation pressures – and ahead of a retail sales report that could show a decline in overall consumer spending levels. Equity futures are down slightly, with losses concentrated in banks that are expected to report weaker earnings in the coming days. With investors bracing for a final volley of rate hikes from major central banks—and positioning for cuts that seem likely to follow—short-term yields are edging up, but remain stable across the rest of the curve. The dollar is flat against most...

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13 Apr 2023

MAS assuming the brace position

At its 14 April policy review, the Monetary Authority of Singapore surprised markets by maintaining “the prevailing rate of appreciation” of the SGD NEER. The MAS also held the width and center of the currency band steady. This reflected the MAS’ relatively more downbeat view of global and domestic growth, and expectations inflation will slow materially over 2023 (see below for more details). In the words of the MAS, given the “intensifying risks” to growth and unfolding turn in inflation, it judges the current SGD NEER appreciation path “is sufficiently tight and appropriate for securing medium-term price stability”. As the...

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