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EUR

Compromising positions

Ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting, we note that speculators have sharply reduced short positions against the dollar in the last month, with the capitulation coming after a series of stronger-than-expected data releases widened expected performance gaps between the United States and the rest of the global economy. Friday’s numbers from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net dollar position on the verge of flipping into bullish territory, with long trades on the euro tumbling sharply relative to levels earlier in the year. The net non-commercial futures position on the dollar against the G10 currencies plus the Mexican...

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US Fed in focus

• Some jitters. Rising oil prices & higher Canadian inflation boosted bond yields. Equities were flat. The USD consolidated & AUD ticked up.• US Fed. No policy change is anticipated tomorrow. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance & forecasts. Markets are already pricing a ‘higher for longer’ view.• Event radar. In addition to the US Fed over the next few days UK CPI (today) is released & the BoE meets (tomorrow). The BoJ meeting is on Friday. A few jitters across markets overnight ahead of tomorrows US Fed decision and press conference (4am and 4:30am AEST). Equities were flat...

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Volatility crumples into central bank deluge

Measures of market turbulence are falling ahead of a slew of central bank decisions, suggesting that investors feel confident in rates nearing a peak for the current cycle. Over the coming days, the Federal Reserve is expected to stay on hold and adjust its “dot plot” projections to show rates remaining high for longer. Another hike from the Bank of England is narrowly favoured in fixed-income markets, but growing signs of economic weakness could push the vote and accompanying statement in a more dovish direction. The Bank of Japan is considered unlikely to change its policy settings, with traders instead...

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Waiting game

• Quiet markets. US equities flat, bond yields mixed. AUD consolidates. Markets in a holding pattern ahead of this weeks offshore central bank meetings.• ECB signals. EUR a bit firmer following reports the ECB is looking at ways to mop up the QE driven excess liquidity in the banking system.• Local trends. RBA minutes today. Population growth is booming. GDP is a volume measure. This can partially offset the drag from higher rates. It has been a quiet start to what could be a busy week given the upcoming central bank meetings. European equities played a bit of catch up...

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Risk appetite falls into heavy week

Currency traders are squaring their positions this morning ahead of a series of potentially market-moving data releases and policy decisions in the coming days. The dollar is inching lower, two-year yields are holding above the 5-percent threshold, and equity futures are setting up for a softer session. The subdued open comes after a week in which Treasury yields snapped higher, stocks fell, and the greenback broke an extended winning streak. With August core consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales all coming in hot, investors began to lose hope in a rapid pivot toward looser monetary policy from the Federal...

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