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EUR

Debt ceiling deal (nearly) done

• US debt ceiling. An agreement to raise the ceiling looks to have been reached. It must now be voted on by both chambers of Congress.• Back to fundamentals. Removing a tail risk should see markets refocus on the policy outlook. US inflation is still too high. Another strong labour market report should be USD supportive.• AUD cross-currents. AUD found some support. Shift in relative interest rate expectations & softer global growth pulse likely to limit the AUD’s rebound. Markets ended last week on more positive footing, with equities rising (the US S&P500 rose 1.3% while the tech-focused NASDAQ outperformed...

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Hot inflation and spending numbers put a summer rate hike firmly on the Fed’s table

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated last month, helping lift the likelihood of another rate hike at one of the central bank’s next two meetings, while helping put a floor under Treasury yields and the dollar. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the core consumer expenditures price index rose a faster-than-anticipated 0.4 percent in April from the month prior, up 4.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, beating market expectations for a 0.3-percent gain. Consumer spending climbed 0.5-percent and personal income inched 0.4 percent higher month-over-month, with pandemic-era savings and higher asset values continuing to fuel extraordinarily-strong levels of consumption...

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AUD & NZD pressure points

• USD upswing. Market pricing for the US Fed has shifted substantially over recent weeks. This is supporting the USD. AUD hit a 2023 low overnight.• US debt ceiling. Limited progress with the ‘x-date’ fast approaching. Ratings agencies have flagged the risk of a US sovereign rating downgrade.• AUD underperformer. The global backdrop is weighing on the AUD. Australian retail sales released today, but offshore forces are more important Mixed fortunes across asset markets, although underlying issues and risks such as the US debt ceiling negotiations, slowing growth, and still high inflation, remain firmly in place. US equities rose as...

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Dollar powers higher on rising rate expectations and sustained liquidity demand

Yields and the dollar continue to push higher after minutes taken during the Federal Reserve’s May meeting seemed to show policymakers questioning whether regional bank turmoil would meaningfully slow inflation. According to a record published yesterday, “Several participants noted that if the economy evolved along the lines of their current outlooks, then further policy firming after this meeting may not be necessary,” but “Some participants commented that, based on their expectations that progress in returning inflation to 2 percent could continue to be unacceptably slow, additional policy firming would likely be warranted at future meetings.”

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Shake, rattle & roll

• Negative vibes. Little progress on US debt ceiling negotiations, ongoing growth worries, & worrying UK inflation data weighed on risk sentiment.• Stronger USD. The backdrop has boosted the USD. Base metals & equities declined. AUD dipped to ~$0.6540, its lowest level since mid-November.• AUD pressure. Except for AUD/NZD, AUD also underperformed on the crosses. More pressure on the AUD expected, but stats show it is entering rarefied air. Another negative night for markets with little progress on US debt ceiling negotiations, growth worries, and some ‘sticky’ inflation data weighing on risk sentiment. Running through the list, the political impasse...

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