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EUR

Israeli Shekel Snapshot

Exhibit 1 US household spending remains remarkably strong. Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD Exhibit 2 Labour market conditions are tight. Initial unemployment claims, thousands Exhibit 3 Core inflation is subsiding too slowly. All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA Exhibit 4 And financial conditions are stabilizing. Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Exhibit 5 Rate expectations are climbing. Target rate probabilities by meeting. Exhibit 6 Across the front end. Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, % Exhibit 7 And the dollar is regaining ground. DXY Dollar...

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Dollar Strengthens into Month End

As the last trading day of the month begins, it’s clear that equity investors aren’t following the “sell in May and go away” dictum, but others are growing more cautious on an increasingly-bifurcated worldwide growth outlook. US Treasury yields – standing in for US growth expectations – continue to climb, while oil prices – a proxy for global demand – are broadly lower, with both key benchmarks down almost 3-percent overnight and off nearly 10 percent for the month. The trade-weighted dollar looks set to end the month having gained nearly 2.75 percent, with higher US yields and increasing scepticism on...

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Will the China PMIs underwhelm?

• Shaky sentiment. US debt ceiling yet to be fully put to bed. US & European confidence weakened, a sign the global downturn is gathering pace.• Currency concerns. JPY weakness has seen officials fire a shot across the bow of markets. A lower currency makes the inflation fight harder.• AUD events. Today, RBA Governor Lowe speaks, the monthly CPI indicator is released, and the China PMIs are due. Some negative vibes across markets as the US and UK returned to work after their long weekend. The US debt ceiling has yet to be fully put to bed. While the in-principle...

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Weekly Market Update

Exhibit 1 Spending remains remarkably strong. Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD Exhibit 2 Core inflation is subsiding too slowly. All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA Exhibit 3 Financial conditions are stabilizing. Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Exhibit 4 Payrolls look unlikely to crumble. Initial unemployment claims, thousands Exhibit 5 Rate expectations are climbing. Target rate probabilities by meeting. Exhibit 6 Across the front end. Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, % Exhibit 7 Differentials are putting the yen under pressure. Indicative 12-Month USDJPY Forward...

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Subdued holiday markets

• Holiday markets. Limited moves with the US, UK, & parts of Europe on holiday. In-principle agreement to raise US debt ceiling to be voted on over coming days.• Global data pulse. Global data flow picks up later this week. China PMIs (Weds), Eurozone CPI (Thurs) & US labour market report (Fri) in focus.• AUD consolidating. Global forces should act as a AUD headwind, offsetting support expected to be generated by upcoming local events. A quiet 24hrs across global markets with the US, UK, and some European countries on holiday, and no major economic data released. Across the markets that...

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