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EUR

Artificial intelligence boosts US dollar

Equity futures are kicking upward and the dollar is rising in the run-up to the North American open after Nvidia reported stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings and issued a remarkably-positive sales forecast. With the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 widening the US performance differential relative to global markets, investor demand for the greenback is intensifying – but we note that this could prove dangerous in the months ahead if the sector fails to deliver on its promise. As the corporate raider Carl Icahn once put it, “Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity”....

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Dollar recovers on rest-of-world weakness

Investor demand for US assets continues to grow at an untrammelled pace this morning as signs of softness emerge in other areas of the global economy. Ten-year Treasury yields are down roughly six basis points to 4.26 percent, but benchmark rates are declining much more rapidly in the UK and euro area after a series of purchasing manager surveys pointed to wider weakness and diminished the case for further monetary tightening. The dollar is stronger against all of its major rivals – with the Japanese yen marking the lone exception. US equity futures are higher ahead of an earnings release...

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Markets marking time

• Mixed signals. European equities rose, but US markets were a bit more cautious. Long-end bond yields eased. A softer EUR supported the USD Index.• AUD base? The consolidation in USD/CNH & firmer base metal prices helped the AUD tick up slightly. Offshore forces will drive the AUD near-term.• Event radar. European/US PMIs (today), trends in China, & speeches by Fed Chair Powell & ECB President Lagarde later this week are in focus. A mixed performance across markets with news flow limited. Bond moves remain in focus. Time will tell but from our perspective there are some tentative signs things...

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US yields stabilize near 16-year highs, dollar weakens

Treasury markets are pausing for breath after a sell-off that drove yields to post-2007 highs, equity futures are seeing a modestly-stronger tech-powered open, and the dollar is slightly softer against its major counterparts. One-month implied volatility in the equity and currency markets remains depressed relative to history, even as the level of turbulence in Treasury markets hits elevated levels. This is reflective of the extent to which global rates are moving in sync with US yields, but also looks fragile as we move through the typical late-August lull and enter more strained global conditions in the early autumn. We rarely...

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Bond yields still rising

• Bond yields. US 10-year yields at their highest since 2007. The upswing in real yields has been the driver. Despite the lift in yields US equities also rose.• Stable FX. The USD & AUD consolidated. AUD remains near the bottom of its 2023 range. Is the AUD finding a base?• Upcoming events. European/US PMIs (Weds), China developments, & upcoming speeches by Fed Chair Powell & ECB President Lagarde are in focus. Despite the limited news flow bond yields have extended their upswing with markets focused on this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium and speeches by US Fed Chair Powell and...

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