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CNY

23 Jul 2023

A busy week ahead

• Firmer USD. The USD has continued to claw back ground. The AUD has remained on the backfoot and is now ~2.4% below its mid-July high.• Busy week. Locally, Q2 CPI (Weds) & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, the US Fed (Thurs), ECB (Thurs) & BoJ (Fri) meet.• More AUD pressure? On net, we think the upcoming events/data could give the USD some more support, with AUD headwinds still in place. Markets had a quiet end to last week. But things could heat up this week with a string of major data points and central bank meetings on the...

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20 Jul 2023

USD revival continues

• Stronger USD. US jobless claims declined, another sign the labour market is still tight. US bond yields rose, supporting the USD.• AUD round trip. The AUD’s Australian labour force & stronger CNH induced gains unwound overnight. AUD a bit firmer on the crosses.• Next week. Q2 AU CPI (26 July) could make or break the case for an August RBA hike. US Fed, ECB, & BoJ policy decisions also on the schedule. A more cautious tone across markets, with a round of disappointing tech-sector earnings results and ongoing signs of tight labour market conditions rattling nerves as it points...

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20 Jul 2023

Australian labour market: still on solid ground

Another month, another positive surprise in the Australian labour force lottery. ~32,600 jobs were added in June, led by further strength in full-time employment (+39,300). The positive run means the employment-to-population ratio remains at a record high (64.5%), with the unemployment rate holding steady at a downwardly revised 3.5%. Unemployment is just above its ~50-year lows. Other metrics like underemployment (now 6.4% compared to an average of 8.5% in the years before COVID) and hours worked show that the labour market is still chugging along. Conditions remain tight and hiring demand has (so far) moved in step with the jump...

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18 Jul 2023

Still solid US retail spending

• Mixed fortunes. Equities higher, while European bond yields fell after the ECB’s Knot watered down future rate hike expectations.• US data. Headline retail sales a bit softer, but the control group (which feeds into US GDP) was stronger. We expect another Fed hike next week.• NZ CPI. Annual headline inflation stepped down. Inflation is past its peak & NZ growth is slowing. We see AUD/NZD moving higher over the medium-term. Diverging trends across markets. Solid earnings results and decent US retail sales data (see below) has helped underpin equities. The lift in bank and artificial intelligence linked stocks pushed...

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18 Jul 2023

North American data prints bolster soft landing hopes

US retail spending rose by less than expected last month, but underlying consumer demand remained strong, bolstering “soft landing” hopes in financial markets. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in June, missing market forecasts for a 0.5 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell 1.4 percent month-over-month, while motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a 0.3 percent gain. Receipts in the food and beverage category fell -0.7 percent, and restaurant sales gained just 0.1 percent. Sales at general merchandise stores inched -0.1 percent...

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