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10 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Currency traders brace for October inflation report

Markets are generally flat ahead of this morning’s inflation data. Investors are expecting to see more evidence of an easing in pressures, but are also prepared to sell assets if prices rise by more than anticipated. The headline consumer price index is expected to rise 0.6 percent month-over-month in October, up 7.9 percent year-over-year. With food and energy excluded, the core measure is seen rising 0.5 percent and 6.5 percent. The pace of price changes has decelerated in recent months, but inflation remains near four-decade highs, well above the Federal Reserve’s target range. Despite a small recovery this morning, the...

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09 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Major currencies stabilize ahead of October inflation number

Price action in the currency markets looks relatively subdued this morning, with lingering midterm election uncertainties and tomorrow’s critical October inflation report acting to restrain directional position-taking. The dollar is trading slightly higher, Treasuries, gilts, and bunds are moving sideways, and both the euro and pound are stuck in incredibly-tight trading ranges. Results are still coming in, but it is already clear that no “red wave” materialized in yesterday’s elections. The Republican Party is likely to win the House by a slim margin, enabling it to stymie large-scale legislative changes, block efforts to lift the debt ceiling, and launch investigations...

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07 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Currencies turn more buoyant in the calm after the storm

Financial markets are adding risk after last week’s unusually-eventful week for macroeconomic developments. Equity futures are climbing, bond yields are holding steady, and the dollar is losing altitude as expectations for Federal Reserve policy begin to stabilize in response to Chair Jerome Powell’s “slower-but-higher” message at Wednesday’s meeting, and after Friday’s stronger-than-expected employment data. After Jerome Powell warned markets not to expect a pause in the months to come, investors expect the Federal Reserve to deliver another half-percentage-point hike in December, with the upper end of the Fed Funds target range climbing to 5.25 percent by mid-2023. The offshore Chinese...

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01 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Make Valiant Attempt at Rallying Into Fed Decision

Global equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies are rallying this morning as rumours of an easing in China’s “covid-zero” policy spread across social media – but gains look vulnerable as official sources strenuously deny any changes are afoot. The DXY dollar index is down almost 0.6 percent and the yen – strongly correlated with the S&P 500 – is up sharply as North American traders hit their desks, suggesting that markets are setting up for a Santa Claus rally even as the outcome of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision remains uncertain. The 10-year Treasury yield has slipped well below the 4 percent...

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31 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Traders Turn Cautious Ahead of Action-Packed Week

The greenback is climbing and the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar is slipping ahead of a week that could prove pivotal in currency markets. Central banks in Australia, the US and the UK will deliver rate decisions and a slew of data releases including non-farm payrolls will be published in the coming days, helping to set market positioning into year end. Traders are buying the Brazilian real after former president Lula da Silva triumphed over Jair Bolsonaro in a closely-fought election. The currency had traded with a persistent risk discount in recent months as Mr. Bolsonaro cast aspersions on the electoral process,...

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