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CNY

Bond yields still rising

• Higher bond yields. Inflation pressures and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric continues to fuel expectations of ongoing rate hikes by the major central banks.• China reopening. Large lift in the PMIs on the back of the reopening. This has supported commodities. But it may add to inflation down the track.• AUD range bound. Positive China developments has been offset by sluggish domestic growth and signs inflation has passed its peak. The upswing in global bond yields has continued, with inflation concerns front-of-mind for investors. Positive risk sentiment in yesterday’s Asian trade generated by the large lift in the China PMIs as the...

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China Reopening Hopes Lift Markets

March is coming in like a lion, with risk appetite rebounding across asset classes on evidence of a stronger-than-expected recovery in the Chinese economy. The US dollar is in retreat as investors pile into the euro on hopes for stronger exports, and as they buy emerging market currencies on an expected rise in raw materials demand. Major North American equity bourses are setting up for a stronger open even as Treasury yields tick higher. The Canadian dollar is gaining, but continues to lag a broader improvement in the commodity complex. The China reopening trade roared back to life last night...

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Inflation continues to surprise

• Eurozone inflation surprise. Eurozone bond yields jumped up after a run of higher than expected inflation prints.• USD still firm. The USD remains near recent highs, with relative interest rate expectations still in favour of the US.• AUD risk events. Q4 GDP, January inflation, and China PMIs are released today. AUD intra-day volatility should pick up, but will the underlying trend change? Interest rate expectations and bond markets remain in focus, though overnight attention was in Europe rather than the US. Bond yields across the Eurozone rose ~5-8bps as markets re-priced how high the ECB policy rate could end...

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Another US inflation surprise

• Higher US rates. Strong US inflation data generated another repricing in US rate expectations, propelling the USD even higher.• Fed needs to do more. Sticky inflation means the US Fed has more work to do. Positive US data can reinforce the upswing in US yields.• AUD slump. AUD is now ~6% below its early-February peak. Will this weeks Australia/China data provide an offset to the stronger USD? The outlook for US Fed policy continues to drive markets. US rate hike expectations took another leg higher on Friday, pushing US bond yields back up towards their peaks. This in turn...

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