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CNY

Conflicting narratives keep dollar rangebound

The trade-weighted dollar flatlined overnight as optimism surrounding China’s reopening process helped offset cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The pound and euro are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as falling inflation prints put pressure on yields, and the Canadian dollar is down slightly on the day – but has gained on a year-to-date basis along with other commodity-linked currencies. Currency markets shrugged yesterday when a record of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting was released, showing that officials thought “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation would be needed before rate hikes could pause. Central bankers warned “an unwarranted easing...

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Market Briefing: Risk appetites – and the dollar – jump into a new year

Happy new year, and may all our market troubles last as long as our resolutions. Investors are in a relatively ebullient mood to kick off 2023, with most major equity indices pointing to a stronger open, while bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic slip. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are eking out small gains, but the greenback is almost a full percentage point higher on a year-to-date basis as traders trim excessive bets on the euro. The Japanese yen is slightly weaker after pushing through the 130 mark against the dollar in yesterday’s thin trading conditions. Investors...

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Market Briefing: Currencies Rangebound As Liquidity Ebbs

Currency traders are all nestled in their spreads, with visions of sweet incomes dancing in their heads. Equities and risk-sensitive currencies are inching higher, the dollar is trading on a mixed basis against its major rivals, and Treasury yields are slightly weaker across the curve. Japan’s yen is holding onto gains achieved on Monday when the central bank shocked markets by opting to relax its yield-suppression efforts. Even if the Bank of Japan’s policy adjustment was not designed to tighten financial conditions, the effect has been just that: two-year government bond yields are above zero for the first time since...

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Market Briefing: Fright Before Christmas Stirs Creatures in FX Markets

Santa Claus might not come this year. The jolly old elf—known for putting gifts in the stockings of good little boys and girls across the financial markets each December—was shot down over Tokyo last night by a central banker wielding a monetary policy-guided surface-to-air missile. His condition is unknown at this time. In a surprise decision, the Bank of Japan increased the upper limit for its ten-year government bond target from 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, almost doubling effective interest rates in one of the world’s most important funding currencies. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the move was aimed at reducing...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Retreats After Messi Weekend

With traders returning to their terminals after an exceptionally unpredictable and entertaining World Cup, a final round of year-end rebalancing is driving most major currencies up against the dollar. Treasury yields are flat, commodity prices are firmer, and equity futures are pointing to incremental gains at the open. Japan’s yen is stabilizing after an unusually-volatile weekend trading session. On Saturday, the Kyodo news agency, citing government sources, said Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was planning to work with the next Bank of Japan Governor on adding “flexibility” to the country’s inflation target – a step that could pave the way for...

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