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CNY

Another line-ball RBA meeting

• Risk on. Softer US spending & PCE inflation data supported risk sentiment on Friday. Equities higher. US bond yields consolidated. USD lost some ground.• RBA in focus. Will they hike or pause on Tuesday? Markets & the analyst community are evenly split. This points to a binary short-term AUD reaction.• AUD forces. As shown last month, RBA actions aren’t the only thing that matter for the AUD. A solid US labour market report on Friday could boost the USD. A positive end to last week for risk markets with equities rising on Friday, while bond yields consolidated, and the...

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Even higher for even longer

• Rates re-pricing. Positive US GDP & jobless claims data has seen interest rate expectations adjust higher. US bond yields have moved up.• USD firm. The repricing has supported the USD, although yesterday’s better than expected AU retail sales data has helped the AUD hold its ground.• AUD events. Ahead of next week’s ‘line-ball’ RBA rate decision, the China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, and US PCE deflator are due today. Bond markets came alive overnight, with yields spiking on the back of stronger than anticipated data. In the US, the run of positive surprises continued. Q1 US GDP growth was revised...

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Higher for longer

• Diverging markets. US equities higher, supported by stronger data. Bond yields up with ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from ECB President Lagarde also at play.• FX markets. USD mixed. EUR firmer, while USD/JPY edged up. The world’s key central bankers speak tonight. Could this rattle risk markets?• AUD mixed. AUD unwound its CNY strength inspired gains. AUD/EUR lower. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is released today. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with stronger than expected US economic data and ‘hawkish’ messages from central bankers pulling asset classes in different directions. In terms of the data, US new home sales increased to their highest...

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Growth worries

• Growth concerns. Weaker German IFO data is another sign the global economy is losing steam. Risk sentiment remains cautious.• Central bankers. The major global central bankers speak tomorrow night. An inflation fighting message could keep the USD firm, in our view.• AUD sluggish. Global backdrop is weighing on the AUD. We see a bit more downside. Locally, CPI indicator & retail sales are due over coming days. Choppy trade to start the new week, but on net risk sentiment remains cautious with growth concerns front of mind. The dramatic weekend events in Russia haven’t generated a meaningful market impact....

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Weekly Update

The direction and magnitude of changes in euro area core producer price indices have tended to lead the core consumer price index by 6 to 9 months. A sharp easing in price pressures looks likely in coming months. Euro area inflation is (probably) headed down. Price indices, % annual change Inflation pressures – as measured using the New York Fed’s “Underlying Inflation Gauge” are trending solidly downward, suggesting that relief could come in the next few months, even if May’s data remains elevated. US inflation could come down even faster. Personal Consumption Expenditures indices and Underlying Inflation Gauges, % annual...

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