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CNY

19 Feb 2024

Hold the line

• Holiday trade. Minimal moves with the US on holiday. European equities consolidated, while the major currencies remained range bound.• USD trends. ECB wage indicator & Canadian CPI tonight. US Fed commentary in focus later this week with markets now pricing in little chance of a March cut.• AUD drivers. February minutes released today & wage data due tomorrow. Signals from China suggest spending was positive during Lunar New Year. With the US closed for Presidents Day and newsflow limited there were minimal market moves overnight. European equities consolidated with the EuroStoxx600 (+0.2%) making its way up towards its January...

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18 Feb 2024

Fed speak on this weeks radar

• Diverging markets. US yields rose & the S&P500 dipped after US producer prices exceeded expectations. However the USD eased. AUD at ~$0.6530.• Holiday data. High frequency data & reports suggest Chinese spending & travel exceeded pre-COVID run-rates. Is the tide finally turning?• Event radar. Locally, Q4 wages is due (Weds). US Fed commentary in focus with several members speaking later in the week. Eurozone PMIs released (Thurs). Markets consolidated on Friday night. In contrast to the Japanese Nikkei which touched another multi-decade high US equities unwound the modest gains from the previous day (S&P500 -0.5%) with higher bond yields...

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13 Feb 2024

US inflation jolts markets

• US inflation. A positive US inflation surprise rattled markets. US bond yields jumped up, equities fell, & the USD strengthened. AUD back down near ~$0.6450.• Rate pricing. Odds of a Fed rate cut in March or May have tumbled. Markets are now (finally) factoring in a similar path forward to the Fed’s ‘dot plot’.• AU events. The next AUD centric event is tomorrows labour force report. Will employment rebound from its December slump or will the cracks widen? The latest read on US inflation rattled markets overnight. US CPI positively surprised pretty much all the analysts surveyed with headline...

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11 Feb 2024

US inflation & AU jobs in focus

• Positive tone. The lack of meaningful revisions to the US CPI seasonal factors supported sentiment. US equities hit another record. The AUD edged up.• US focus. US CPI & retail sales this week. Inflation projected to slow with headline CPI set to slip below 3%pa. This may take some of the heat out of the USD.• Event radar. AU jobs report released Thursday with employment forecast to rebound. RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks. UK GDP & CPI also due this week. An upbeat tone across markets on Friday with participants and Federal Reserve policymakers breathing a sigh of relief that...

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08 Feb 2024

Central bankers continue to push back

• Mixed markets. Bond yields a bit higher as ECB & Fed officials continue to push back on near-term rate cut bets. USD firmer against JPY & AUD.• RBA speak. Governor Bullock testifies to parliament today. A repeat of this week’s rhetoric expected. This may give the AUD some intra-day support.• US CPI revisions. Revisions to seasonal factors for the US inflation data released tonight. This caused a stir across markets last year. Will it happen again? A mixed performance across asset classes in what was generally another quiet night when it comes to market news flow. Central bankers hit...

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