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CNY

10 Aug 2023

US CPI vs bond supply

• US CPI. The July report was largely as expected. But the rebound in commodity prices, particularly oil, points to higher US inflation over coming months.• Bond yields. US yields rose post the data following a lackluster bond auction. This dampened risk sentiment & supported the USD later in the day.• AUD sluggish. AUD/USD remains near the bottom of its ~2-month range. Outgoing RBA Governor Lowe gives his last Parliamentary Testimony today. The keenly anticipated US CPI report was released overnight, and while markets initially breathed a sigh of relief bond market gyrations later in the session unnerved investors. In...

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10 Aug 2023

Softer US inflation sends dollar lower

Markets are doubling down on “soft landing” bets this morning after US consumer inflation slowed as expected, reducing the need for further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Equity futures are up, Treasury yields are down slightly on the front end of the curve, and the dollar is slipping ahead of the North American open. North America Headline consumer prices rose 3.2 percent in July from the same period last year according to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, up 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly below the the 3.3 percent and 0.2...

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09 Aug 2023

All eyes on US CPI

• Jittery markets. Higher oil & gas prices have raised some concerns inflation could re-accelerate over coming months. US equities slipped back.• US CPI. Focus is on tonight’s US inflation data. Base-effects have run their course. Inflation may start to surprise ‘optimistic’ markets.• AUD sluggish. AUD/USD hovering near the bottom end of its ~2-month range. The weakness (so far) in August is inline with the seasonal pattern. Markets remain somewhat jittery ahead of the release of the July US CPI report (10:30pm AEST), and with higher commodity prices fanning concerns of a re-acceleration in inflation down the track. Brent crude...

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08 Aug 2023

History doesn’t repeat, but…

“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes”. Based on our analysis of seasonal performance this statement seems to hold true for several currencies and other important financial markets. For the aficionados although we found no ‘stable statistical seasonality’, there seems to be a lot of ‘coincidence’ as a variety of things such as production and trade trends, financial year end related flows, asset allocation changes, and/or thinner liquidity conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer or Christmas period compound or counteract unfolding macroeconomic developments. Our Seasonality Heatmaps, provided at the bottom of this note, illustrate the average monthly performance of...

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07 Aug 2023

US CPI in focus this week

• Positive vibes. Risk markets have started the new week on firmer footing. US equities rose & the yield curve steepened. The USD consolidated.• Regional data. AUD has found some support. Today, Australian consumer & business sentiment is released, as is the China trade data.• US CPI. The latest US inflation read is in focus this week. Base-effects are no longer as favourable. A US inflation surprise could rattle market nerves. Risk sentiment started the new week on the front foot. US equities recovered some lost ground. The S&P500 rose 0.9% overnight, though this follows last week’s 2.3% fall (the...

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