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CNY

12 Sep 2023

Markets flat-line into US inflation report

Currency traders are so bored, they’re working just to pass the time this morning. Foreign exchange market ranges remain remarkably tight ahead of tomorrow’s US consumer inflation report, equity futures are pointing toward an incrementally-softer open, and Treasury yields are inching lower into what could be a news-light trading day. The pound is holding below the psychologically-important 1.25 threshold against the dollar after British wage growth stayed hot in the three months through July – making a compelling case for more Bank of England tightening – even as the broader labour market showed signs of easing, suggesting that a growth...

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11 Sep 2023

FX is a relative game

• Words & actions. ‘Hawkish’ comments by the by BoJ Governor supported bond yields & the JPY. Authorities in China push back against CNY weakness.• AUD turn? Positive risk sentiment, better China credit data, & a softer USD stemming from a firmer JPY & CNY have given the AUD a boost.• Data flow. AU sentiment data released today with US CPI (Weds), AU jobs report, US retail sales, ECB meeting (all Thurs), & China data (Fri) due later this week. In what is likely to be a busy week given the string of upcoming macro focal points, markets were a...

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11 Sep 2023

Dollar stalls on Asian currency rebound

Central bank jawboning helped the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen stop the dollar’s advance this weekend, with the trade-weighted exchange rate roughly -0.3 percent below Friday’s close. North American equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, Treasury yields are inching higher, oil prices are slipping, and most other major currencies are firmly rangebound against the dollar. The renminbi jumped more than 1 percent in Asian trading hours after the People’s Bank of China warned that it could intervene directly in markets to squeeze short-sellers and stabilize exchange rates. “We will not hesitate on taking actions when necessary to...

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10 Sep 2023

Will the US data underwhelm?

Quiet markets. Equities consolidated on Friday. US yields & oil ticked up. In FX, the USD is tracking at high levels, with the AUD hovering just above its 2023 lows.JPY focus. Japanese officials continue to ramp up the rhetoric about JPY weakness. BoJ Governor Ueda also gave a rather ‘hawkish’ interview.Event risks. AU business conditions, US CPI, AU employment, US retail sales, the ECB meeting, & the China activity data are due this week. Without any fresh economic news global markets were restrained on Friday. Across equities, the US S&P500 was slightly higher (+0.1%), while the European EuroStoxx50 outperformed (+0.4%)...

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08 Sep 2023

Yuan plummets, dollar pushes toward eighth weekly gain

Faith in a US soft landing – bolstered by yesterday’s surprise drop in initial jobless claims – seems to be on shakier ground this morning. Equity futures are broadly lower, Treasury yields are slipping, and the dollar is down almost imperceptibly – although it remains on course toward closing out an eighth week of gains against its major counterparts. The Canadian dollar is essentially unchanged after Governor Tiff Macklem hinted that the Bank of Canada’s monetary tightening cycle was drawing to a close. “With past interest rate increases still working their way through the economy,” he said “monetary policy may...

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