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CNY

03 Oct 2023

Yield surge punishes global markets

Tumult in Treasury markets is worsening after the US manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization and several Federal Reserve officials doubled down on “higher for longer” rhetoric. Ten-year yields topped 4.7 percent in yesterday’s session for the first time since October 2007 – and are holding there – while their inflation-adjusted equivalents are sitting near 2.32 percent The dollar is steamrolling through currency markets, sitting near a 10-month trade-weighted high as its major counterparts retreat. Equites are – predictably – softer, crude prices are down, and implied volatility measures are pushing upward once again. Governor Michelle Bowman – one of...

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02 Oct 2023

Markets rise on interrupted shutdown

US markets are gaining this morning after the government reached a last-minute deal to avert a shutdown – but with the same brinksmanship likely to play out again in less than eight weeks, we’re not sure how long the momentum can last. Equity futures are rising ahead of the open, Treasury yields are pushing toward Friday’s highs, and the dollar is climbing against its major Asian and European rivals. In a surprising and confusing late-Saturday development, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy – who had for weeks refused to consider a similar bipartisan measure crafted in the Senate – agreed to table...

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27 Sep 2023

Higher Oil, stronger USD

• Oil & bonds. Oil prices have continued to rise. Inflation risks are underpinning bond yields. Relatively higher US yields have supported the USD.• AUD struggles. The stronger USD has washed through FX markets. EUR touched its lowest level since early-January. AUD hit a fresh 2023 low.• Local data. Headline inflation re-accelerated. Improvement in core inflation is slow going. Pressure on the RBA to tighten further remains. Retail sales due today. Another night of bearish sentiment with a further jump in oil prices fanning inflation fears which in turn feed through to bond yields and a stronger USD. WTI crude...

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27 Sep 2023

Bonds have more fun

Treasury yields are retreating from multi-decade highs, helping relieve pressure on equity and foreign exchange markets. North American stock markets look set to open in the green and the dollar is putting in a mixed performance, but the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar is inching lower, and background volatility measures are creeping up. Bond yields moved higher in yesterday’s session after home prices resumed their rise, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index climbing for a fifth month in July – a development that could indicate financial conditions are still too loose, and one that suggests inflation might remain sticky for longer....

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26 Sep 2023

Bearish vibes

• Negative sentiment. Elevated bond yields, sluggish US data, & US government shutdown jitters dampened risk sentiment. Equities lower. USD firm.• AUD sluggish. The backdrop has weighed on the EUR & GBP. AUD also a bit lower. Since 2015 AUD has only traded sub ~$0.64 ~2% of the time.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator released today. The large jump in petrol & stickiness across services prices points to a re-acceleration in inflation. A negative night for risk sentiment. News flow has remained light but the outlook for ‘higher for longer’ interest rates on the back of still elevated inflation and...

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