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CNY

07 Nov 2023

Trade whack-a-mole

Based on this morning’s data from the Census Bureau, one could be forgiven for imagining that the trade tariffs implemented under the Trump administration – and kept largely intact under Biden – are working. The US goods deficit in the first nine months of the year shrank relative to the same period in 2022. And although Mexico’s share of US merchandise imports dipped slightly relative to China’s in September, it remained well ahead on a 12-month rolling average basis. Calls to eliminate trade deficits by applying across-the-board 10-percent tariffs – growing louder on the campaign trail ahead of the 2024...

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05 Nov 2023

AUD revival continues

• US jobs. A softer US jobs report added to the downward pressure on US yields & the USD. Equities continue to bounce back. AUD at its highest since late-August.• RBA hike? Attention will be on tomorrow’s RBA decision. Most analysts are expecting a rate rise, but markets are less sure (~60% chance is priced in).• AUD vol. Market pricing points to AUD volatility post the RBA, with a ‘surprise’ no change likely to generate a larger knee-jerk AUD reaction, in our view. Markets were fixated on the latest US jobs report on Friday night. The weaker than predicted figures...

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02 Nov 2023

Jobs, jobs, jobs

• Yields fall. Long end yields continued to decline. This has boosted equities. The AUD has edged up to the top of its recent range.• Central banks. The BoE held rates steady. Outside of the RBA, expectations tightening cycles are nearing their end continue to build.• US jobs in focus. Soft data would reinforce the slide in yields & the USD. But this isn’t guaranteed. A positive surprise could see recent moves reverse. The pull-back in long-end bond yields continued overnight as expectations central bank tightening cycles (outside of the RBA) are nearing their end continue to build. The US...

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01 Nov 2023

US bond yields tumble

• US yields fall. No change from the US Fed, but the tone was ‘cautious’. This, softer US data, & lower debt issuance projections weighed on US yields.• Positive sentiment. The moves in US rates helped support equity markets & cyclical currencies like the AUD. The AUD outperformed over the past 24hrs.• Yield spreads. The RBA is expected to hike rates next week & further steps are possible. This shift has seen yield spreads move in favour of a higher AUD. A sizeable drop in US bond yields was the dominating market development overnight. US yields fell by 14-19bps across...

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31 Oct 2023

US Fed on the radar

• Mixed markets. Equities higher & oil lower. Contrasting trends saw European & US yields diverge. USD firmer, with USD/JPY jumping up post the BoJ.• BoJ tweaks. The BoJ adjusted its yield curve control framework, but it wasn’t enough to appease FX markets. The USD move weighed on the AUD.• Fed in focus. Attention is on the US with data & Fed policy decision due. With no change in rates expected what Chair Powell says will be important. It was a rather placid end to another turbulent month for most asset classes. European and US equities edged higher with the...

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