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CNY

30 Oct 2023

China PMIs & BoJ in focus

• Positive tone. Equities rose & oil prices extended their slide. Markets are taking the Middle East developments in their stride. The USD also softened.• AUD rebound. Firmer equities & a positive AU retail sales report which reinforced RBA rate hike expectations has helped the AUD recover some lost ground.• Asian focus. Today attention will be on the China PMIs & the BoJ decision. Another BoJ tweak could support the weak JPY, which in turn weighs on the USD. Markets have started the week on a more positive footing. Investors appear to be taking the Middle East developments in their...

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30 Oct 2023

It’s quiet. Too quiet.

It may be the most wonderful time of the fear, but foreign exchange markets remain remarkably calm. 1-month implied volatility – a measure of expected swings in exchange rates – in G7 currency pairs is holding almost a full standard deviation below post-2000 norms, and remains well below comparable indicators in other asset classes. We doubt this can be sustained as geopolitical risks simmer, outcomes diverge across the major economic blocs, and stress grows on the global financial system. We’d try to remind market participants of the ghosts of previous foreign exchange shocks – major moves tend to occur just...

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30 Oct 2023

Traders exit safe havens ahead of busy week

Markets are unwinding risk haven trades this morning, following a pattern established over the last several weekends, with Gaza-related geopolitical exposures forcing traders to square positions before each Friday close, only to reopen them each Monday. With Israeli forces advancing more cautiously than had been feared, oil prices are down, gold is coming under selling pressure, and equity futures are edging higher. The dollar is broadly softening against its major counterparts – including the Canadian dollar – but ten-year Treasury yields are again pushing past the 4.85-percent mark as investors brace for a tumultuous week in fixed income markets. The...

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25 Oct 2023

Minding the gap, traders buy the dollar

The dollar remains firm and Treasury yields are ticking higher after yesterday’s sentiment survey data highlighted a yawning performance gap between the American economy and its global counterparts. A series of purchasing manager indices released by S&P Global showed the US as the only major economy remaining in expansionary territory in early October, with composite measures for the euro area, UK, and Japan pointing to further contraction. We’re not sure the dollar will be acting as the only port in the storm for long. Under-the-hood details suggest inflation pressures are now running at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target,...

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24 Oct 2023

Australian inflation in focus

• Data trends. Divergence between the US & Europe weighed on EUR & GBP. The AUD held up against the firmer USD & outperformed on the crosses.• China stimulus. China will issue more debt to fund infrastructure projects. Supports our view that China’s economy has passed its cyclical bottom.• RBA & CPI. Gov. Bullock stressed the Board “will not hesitate” to lift rates again “if there is a material upward revision” to the inflation outlook. CPI released today. Following the bout of volatility induced by sharp swings in bond yields earlier this week markets calmed down overnight. Equities rose with...

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