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19 Mar 2024

Will the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ change?

• Firmer USD. US equities higher & bond yields a little lower. A higher USD/JPY has boosted the USD. AUD & NZD have shed some more ground.• BoJ & RBA. BoJ hiked rates for the first time since 2007. But markets were underwhelmed. RBA tweaked its forward guidance to more ‘neutral’ language.• US Fed. Focus tomorrow morning will be on the US Fed’s forecasts & guidance. No change to 2024 projections could disappoint ‘hawkish’ expectations. Following a bit of volatility in yesterday’s Asian session after the Bank of Japan changes (and RBA meeting) asset markets were more subdued overnight as...

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18 Mar 2024

March Madness Begins

Well, madness for economics nerds anyway. Equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady near the 4.3 percent mark, and most major currency pairs are range-bound ahead of a week in which central banks in Australia, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States will deliver rate decisions. Tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan could raise rates into positive territory for the first time since 2007. A significant share of market participants expect policymakers to lift the overnight and uncollateralized call rates by 10 basis points and end the yield...

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17 Mar 2024

Central banks in focus

• Waiting game. Ahead of this week’s key events FX markets consolidated on Friday. USD index tracked sideways. AUD near its 200-day moving average.• Event radar. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE decisions due this week. China data released today, while NZ GDP & AU jobs due on Thursday.• Central banks. Further bursts of volatility probable. Will the BoJ hike rates for the first time since 2007? Will the US Fed continue to forecast 3 cuts in 2024? With one eye on this week’s central bank meetings global markets largely consolidated on Friday. US bond yields ticked up slightly (the...

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14 Mar 2024

US stagflation vibes

• Stagflation worries. US retail sales underwhelm while stronger producer prices raised concerns about the inflation outlook. US yields rose. USD a bit firmer.• AUD slips. Higher US yields exerted pressure on the AUD. But the intra-day swing was below average. Focus today will be on Japanese wage outcomes.• Upcoming events. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE meet next week. Will the BoJ finally move? On top of that the China activity data & AU jobs report are due. A few wobbles across risk markets overnight as “stagflation vibes” from the latest US retail sales and Producer Price inflation data...

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10 Mar 2024

Will the AUD’s upswing continue?

• US jobs. Mixed US jobs report. Payrolls stronger than expected in February, but the underlying detail and downward revisions worked in the opposite direction.• FX trends. USD lost ground last week, with the JPY upswing due to increased BoJ rate hike pricing a factor. AUD had its best week (+1.5%) since mid-December.• Event radar. Globally attention will be on the latest US CPI report (Tues) with retail sales due later in the week. BoJ policy expectations will also be in focus. The latest read on the US labour market came and went on Friday night without generating too much...

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