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CNY

07 Jan 2024

A new year market reversal

• Market reversal. Late-2023 rally lost steam. Equities have given back ground over early-January, bond yields are higher, & the USD is firmer. AUD near ~$0.6725.• US jobs. Payrolls rose more than predicted in December. But stepping back there are signs conditions are loosening. Policy easing cycles will be in focus in 2024.• Event radar. Globally, the latest US CPI report is in focus (Fri AEDT). Locally, retail sales (Tues AEDT) & monthly inflation (Weds AEDT) are due. The late-2023 risk rally has lost puff over early 2024. Equities have given back ground over the first week of January (S&P500...

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04 Jan 2024

Market Hangover Eases

Having moved past the puking stage, traders have moved from the bed to the sofa, and are now ordering McDonald’s for delivery. Equity futures are setting up for modest gains at the North American open, Treasury yields are stabilizing, and pro cyclical units are climbing across currency markets as post-New Year positioning adjustments near completion. Minutes taken during the Federal Reserve’s December meeting seemed consistent with three rate cuts this year, beginning later than March. Policymakers broadly agreed that easing could prove necessary this year, noting “the downside risks to the economy that would be associated with an overly restrictive...

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19 Dec 2023

Santa rally continues

• Positive vibes. US equities posted another gain with the seasonal rally in full swing. Backdrop supported the AUD which touched its highest level since July.• USD softer. USD lost ground with the lift in USD/JPY on the back of a ‘dovish’ BoJ an exception. JPY underperformed with AUD/JPY up ~1.6% over the past 24hrs.• US inflation. PCE deflator (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) due at the end of the week. A deceleration could reinforce rate cut pricing, weighing on the USD. The positive run across risk assets continued overnight. US equities posted another gain with the S&P500 (+0.6%) within striking...

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17 Dec 2023

Will the BoJ jolt markets?

• Mixed markets. Equities consolidated, long end yields dipped. USD clawed back ground against EUR & GBP. AUD hovering near the top of its range.• Fed push back. NY Fed Pres. Williams tried to curb the rate cut enthusiasm. But the die has been cast. Markets looking to price in the easing cycle.• Event radar. Locally, the minutes of the RBA meeting are due. Offshore, the US PCE deflator is released & the Bank of Japan meets. It was a mixed end to last week for markets. Macro-wise China’s November activity data was generally better than anticipated. Helped by stimulus...

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15 Dec 2023

China’s growth engines are powering up.

China’s trajectory will be an important driver of foreign exchange and broader asset markets over 2024. After the economy suffered some renewed weakness when the COVID-zero policies were rolled back, policymakers in China stepped up their efforts to re-invigorate activity, and there are signs momentum has bottomed out. On top of the monetary easing that has been put through, and the efforts to support the renminbi, targeted fiscal measures have also been unveiled, along with a raft of policies aimed at brightening the outlook in the beleaguered property sector. USDCNY daily fix vs. survey estimate Taken individually, the measures don’t...

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