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AUD

18 Apr 2023

China’s sector divergence & AUD/EUR

China’s activity batch for March, which included Q1 GDP, confirmed that the economic rebound following the shift away from the COVID zero policy is unfolding. GDP growth was a bit stronger than predicted, with China’s economy expanding by 2.2% over Q1. As a result, annual growth momentum stepped up to 4.5%pa. A look across the underlying drivers shows that, as per other economies when COVID health/mobility restrictions were lifted, spending by households is doing the heavy lifting as pent-up demand is unleashed. Retail sales rose 5.8%pa over Q1 compared to the same period last year. Less encouraging was the underwhelming...

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17 Apr 2023

China data in focus

• USD firmer. A further rebound in US bond yields on the back of stronger US data and comments by a Fed official has supported the USD.• China focus. China data, which includes Q1 GDP, released today. Growth should mechanically lift following the end of COVID-zero. But are expectations too high?• AUD range trading. AUD held up in the face of a firmer USD overnight. The China data could generate some AUD volatility today. The rebound in the USD Index has continued, with the USD stronger against the other major currencies over the past 24hrs. EUR has dipped back towards...

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16 Apr 2023

Will the USD recovery continue?

• USD rebound. The lift in US inflation expectations and hawkish Fed comments boosted US interest rate pricing and supported the USD.• AUD falls back. The bounce back in the USD has weighed on the AUD. The China data batch is the main AUD event this week.• AUD/NZD edging higher. NZ CPI inflation released later this week. A result close to consensus should reinforce thinking the RBNZ has reached a rate peak. The USD bounced back on Friday, with Thursday’s losses unwound. US economic data and ‘hawkish’ comments from a key Federal Reserve official boosted US interest rate expectations and...

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13 Apr 2023

USD downturn

• USD lower. Weaker US jobless claims and PPI data has reinforced thinking the US Fed is nearing the end of its hiking phase. This has weighed on the USD.• AUD rebound. The weaker USD, positive risk sentiment, and repricing in RBA rate hike expectations following the stronger labour force report have boosted the AUD.• US retail sales in focus. US retail sales are released tonight. Leading indicators point to a softer result. A positive night for risk sentiment, with softer US data supporting expectations the US Fed could be nearing the end of its rate hiking phase. Equities were...

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13 Apr 2023

Australian labour market: As good as it gets

The Australian labour force report is notoriously volatile, and the March data generated yet another, albeit positive, surprise. Employment rose more than anticipated, with 53,000 jobs added in the month. This follows the ~64,000 jobs created in February. The mix was also favorable, with full-time employment leading the way (+72,200 in March). Labour market conditions remain tight. The employment-to-population ratio is historically high (now 64.4%), as is the participation rate, while unemployment is still very low. At 3.5% the unemployment rate remains near the lowest it has been since the early-1970’s. Indeed, on the monthly data going back to 1978,...

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