AUD

• US holiday. Quiet night across markets. Oil prices rose, EUR weakened, & the AUD bounced back following yesterday’s post-RBA meeting dip.• RBA holds firm. Cash rate held steady at 4.1%. We expect a 25bp hike in August when new inflation & labour market forecasts are produced.• US data flow. US FOMC minutes, JOLTs job openings, ISM services measure, & US labour market report due over coming days. With the US enjoying its 4 July holiday it was another quiet night across markets. The EuroStoxx50 eased (-0.2%), with cyclical sectors like industrials, materials, and financials underperforming. European bond yields were...

• Rates re-pricing. Positive US GDP & jobless claims data has seen interest rate expectations adjust higher. US bond yields have moved up.• USD firm. The repricing has supported the USD, although yesterday’s better than expected AU retail sales data has helped the AUD hold its ground.• AUD events. Ahead of next week’s ‘line-ball’ RBA rate decision, the China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, and US PCE deflator are due today. Bond markets came alive overnight, with yields spiking on the back of stronger than anticipated data. In the US, the run of positive surprises continued. Q1 US GDP growth was revised...