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AUD

08 Nov 2023

Oil slick

• Mixed markets. Equities ticked up with the S&P500 enjoying its 8th straight gain. USD index consolidated, but commodity currencies like the AUD slipped back.• Bonds & oil. The slide in long-end bond yields & oil continued. US 10yr yields are now ~50bps below the late-October peak. Oil is at a multi-month low.• AUD stumble. AUD has given back ~1/2 its recent rebound. Domestic wage & jobs data released next week could see AU rate expectations rebound. With not too much economic news most markets have consolidated over the past day. Equities have generally ticked up with the major European...

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07 Nov 2023

Fedspeak back in driver’s seat

 Aaaaannd we’re back. Ten-year Treasuries are again yielding more than 4.63 percent and the dollar is up after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve’s Neel Kashkari warned rates might have further to climb in the months ahead. “Before we declare that we’re absolutely done, we’ve solved the problem, let’s get more data and see how the economy evolves,” he told Fox News yesterday, “We need to let the data keep coming to us to see if we really have got the inflation genie back in the bottle”. As if to punctuate Kashkari’s point, the Reserve Bank of Australia last night set a...

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07 Nov 2023

RBA: it ain’t over till it’s over

After sitting on its hands since delivering a rate rise in early-June, the RBA has seen enough to think that its policy settings weren’t ‘restrictive’ enough to get inflation back down to the 2-3% target band in the desired time. At today’s meeting the RBA Board, under the stewardship of new Governor Bullock, raised interest rates by another 25bps. This has taken the cash rate up to 4.35%, its highest level since November 2011. Today’s move has taken the cumulative tightening delivered to 425bps, by far the most abrupt RBA hiking cycle in several decades. According to the RBA, inflation...

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06 Nov 2023

RBA: will they or won’t they?

• Consolidation. Bond yields recovered a bit of lost ground, though moves across FX were limited. The USD is a little firmer. AUD slipped back under $0.65.• Another RBA hike? RBA in focus today. Most analysts expect another 25bp hike. Markets are less sure with a ~65% chance of a move factored in.• AUD vol. A hike combined with an ongoing tightening bias should be AUD positive. But a no change decision could trigger a larger knee-jerk AUD fall. After last weeks outsized market moves, it isn’t surprising to see that there was some modest payback overnight. US equities were...

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06 Nov 2023

Peak rates optimism delivers market relief

Markets are steadying after last week’s stunning rally. Equity and commodity futures are edging higher ahead of the North American open, the dollar is trading near a six-week low, and Treasury yields are lower across the curve, with the ten-year trading at 4.59 percent after breaking the 5 percent barrier in late October. To sum up last week’s events: the Treasury said it would push less bond supply into markets than had been feared, the Federal Reserve turned slightly more dovish, and Friday’s jobs report showed labour markets showing clear signs of easing, giving the central bank further room to...

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