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AUD

06 Feb 2024

RBA: A more balanced approach

At its first meeting of 2024, and the first under the new ~6-weekly structure which also saw the bank release its latest economic projections, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.35%. This was expected with more attention on the RBA’s updated reading of the macro landscape and its policy guidance. In the end the RBA played a rather straight bat by continuing to stress that “returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority” and noting that “while recent data indicate that inflation is easing, it remains high”. With that in mind, in the...

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05 Feb 2024

Will the RBA stop the AUD’s slide?

• Fed repricing. Positive US services ISM & Fed rhetoric has seen markets continue to pare back rate cut bets. Rising US yields are supporting the USD.• RBA today. The decision & new forecasts are released at 2:30pm AEDT with Gov. Bullock holding a press conference from 3:30pm AEDT.• Push back? No policy change expected. Focus will be on the RBA’s guidance. Will it follow the BoE & US Fed by leaning against rate cut forecasts? The upswing in bond yields and the USD has continued at the start of the new week. A positive surprise in the US ISM...

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04 Feb 2024

Markets jolted by US jobs

• US jobs. A much stronger than expected US jobs report jolted markets. US yields rose. This supported the USD & pushed the AUD back to the bottom of its range.• Too good to be true? Issues with seasonal factors & weather impacts could have made a good set of numbers look great. Payback likely over time.• RBA in focus. A new year & a new format. No policy change anticipated. But Governor Bullock could follow the Fed & BoE in pushing back on rate cut bets. Another day another burst of volatility on Friday with a bumper US jobs...

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01 Feb 2024

US jobs report on the radar

• Push-pull. US equities rose, bond yields dipped & the USD reversed course as markets focused on the looming easing cycle. AUD traded in a 1.1% range.• BoE holds. BoE mirrored the US Fed. Reference to further tightening was removed, but policymakers still not at the point to cut rates. GBP firmer.• US jobs. US labour market report in focus tonight. The data may generate another burst of FX volatility as it can influence US interest rate expectations. Another busy session overnight with participants also continuing to digest yesterday’s US Fed meeting. US equities bounced back (S&P500 +1.1%) with a...

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31 Jan 2024

Fed leans against near-term cuts

• Fed focus. No change from the Fed. Tone was more ‘neutral’ & while Chair Powell pointed to easing later this year he also watered down odds of a March cut.• Market vol. Another burst of volatility as markets digested the US data & adjusted near-term Fed expectations. AUD whipped around (now ~$0.6560).• AU CPI. Q4 inflation slowed more than forecast. Markets are pricing in a chance of a RBA rate cut as soon as next week. We don’t see this happening. Another burst of market volatility overnight with the latest Fed meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference center stage....

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