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AUD

27 Nov 2023

Weaker USD supporting the AUD

• Softer tone. Equities lost some ground & bond yields dipped back overnight. Oil still on the backfoot & the USD remains under pressure.• AUD upswing. AUD’s positive run continued. AUD above ~$0.66 for the first time since early-August. But following its rapid rise it may face some local hurdles.• Local data. AU retail sales due today & monthly CPI released tomorrow. Did cash conscious households hold back their spending for the ‘Black Friday’ sales? It has been a rather subdued start to the week. As our chart shows, the VIX Index (the volatility measure for the S&P500) is at...

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26 Nov 2023

AUD faces some data challenges

• Trends extend. European equities ticked up, bond yields rose. Oil gave back ground. Iron ore elevated. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Weaker USD. USD remains under pressure. USD index is near where it started the year. Factors that propelled the USD higher have changed course.• Event radar. Locally, retail sales & monthly CPI are due. Offshore, US PCE deflator, manufacturing ISM, China PMIs & Eurozone inflation are released. It was a fairly quiet end to last week across markets with the US having a holiday shortened session on Friday following the Thanksgiving break. European equities ticked...

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23 Nov 2023

USD losing its shine

We began to be more vocal about our thoughts the USD (and resultant weakness in the AUD) was looking on shaky foundations and was set to reverse course in mid-September (see Market Musings: AUD: Always darkest before the dawn). In hindsight we were a few weeks early, but nevertheless the macro landscape has evolved as we predicted causing the USD to lose ground (and the AUD to rebound) over the past month or so. As it was stressed at the start of my career, in financial markets it is better to make the right calls early, rather than hold the...

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23 Nov 2023

Holiday markets

• Quiet markets. US closed for Thanksgiving. European equities ticked up & bond yields rose. FX moves limited. AUD hovering near multi-month highs.• PMIs. Eurozone & UK PMIs a bit better than expected. Eurozone still in the ‘contraction’ zone but momentum looks to be stabilising.• Data quirks. Locally, retail sales & monthly CPI due next week. We think sales may fall & the CPI indicator may send a false signal. Near-term risks for the AUD. With the US on holiday celebrating Thanksgiving markets have been fairly quiet. This is likely to remain the case today given reduced activity in the...

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22 Nov 2023

RBA’s inflation challenge

• Mixed markets. US equities rose & bond yields edged up slightly. Oil eased back. USD a bit firmer. RBA rhetoric an offset for the AUD.• Volatile data. Weekly US jobless claims data a little better than expected. But some seasonal factors suggest it may not last. Eurozone PMIs due tonight.• RBA speak. Gov. Bullock delivered another speech & comments around inflation sounded hawkish. Diverging policy expectations are AUD supportive. Market volatility picked up slightly overnight as participants reacted to some partial US economic data and looked to lighten positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday period. The US and Japan...

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