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AUD

13 Dec 2023

Fed pivot jolts markets

• US Fed. A ‘dovish’ pivot by the Fed. Comments & updated forecasts point to the next step being policy easing, with several cuts projected in 2024.• Market repricing. US bond yields tumbled as markets adjusted their thinking. This weighed on the USD & propelled the AUD & risk markets higher.• AU jobs. After a strong Oct., there are risks to the Nov. data. This may exert short-term pressure on the AUD, but it shouldn’t change the bigger USD driven trend. All eyes were on the US Fed meeting and press conference this morning and the ‘dovish’ tilt we were...

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12 Dec 2023

US Fed in the spotlight

• Market swings. Some intra-session vol. around the US CPI. But net market moves have been modest. USD softer, though lower oil prices held down the AUD.• US inflation. Data matched predictions. Headline inflation slowed to 3.1%pa, while core steady at 4%pa. Firmer services shows the last leg could be difficult.• US Fed. No policy change expected. While the Fed should reiterate it may do more if needed, we think the forecasts should show that the next move will be a rate cut. There has been a bit of market volatility overnight around the release of the latest US CPI...

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11 Dec 2023

Will US inflation spring a surprise?

• Weaker JPY. Quiet markets, except for the JPY. Reports indicating the BoJ may not be in a rush to change policy has weighed on the JPY.• US CPI. US inflation tonight, ahead of this weeks Fed meeting. Signs inflation is easing should support views the next move will be to cut rates, albeit in 2024.• AUD anniversary. 40yrs since the float. Over this time AUD avg. $0.7550. But it is volatile. On avg. AUD has traded in a ~14cent range each year. It has been a quiet start to the week across most markets as participants marked time ahead...

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10 Dec 2023

US Fed in focus this week

• US jobs. Payrolls were a bit higher than forecast & US unemployment dipped. US equities & yields rose giving the USD some support.• FX moves. The USD rebound was modest. Most of the major pairs, including the AUD, only slipped back to where they were tracking the day earlier.• Event radar. Locally, jobs data is due. Offshore, the US Fed, ECB & BoE meet. On top of that US CPI & retail sales are released, as is the China data batch. Positive sentiment across financial markets continued into the end of last week. A better-than-expected US labour market report...

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07 Dec 2023

BoJ finally set to join the party?

• JPY surge. Comments by BoJ officials has bolstered expectations a change could be coming. The jump in the JPY has cascaded across FX markets.• USD weaker. The 2.6% drop in USD/JPY (the 2nd most traded currency pair) has given other currencies a boost. AUD is back over ~$0.66.• US jobs. US labour market report released tonight. The end of the auto strike can give employment a temporary boost. But broader conditions should loosen. The tone across markets was a bit more positive overnight. US equities rebounded (S&P500 +0.8), with the tech-focused NASDAQ outperforming (+1.3%). Optimism about Artificial Intelligence re-emerged...

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