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AUD

22 Jan 2024

Will the BoJ hold the line?

• Subdued markets. US equities added to their gains, bond yields drifted a bit lower, & the USD ticked up. AUD slipped back towards ~$0.6570.• BoJ decision. No changes by the BoJ anticipated today. But there is always scope for a surprise. If it were to occur, the ‘under-valued’ JPY would lift.• NZ inflation. Q4 NZ CPI due tomorrow. Inflation slowdown set to extend. A large drop could reinforce RBNZ rate cut views, a support for AUD/NZD. It has been quiet start to the week across markets. This isn’t surprising given the lack of economic data releases and with members...

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21 Jan 2024

Global events in focus

• Upbeat tone. US S&P500 closed at a record high. Base metals prices lifted. The USD drifted a little lower & the AUD clawed back a bit more ground.• Bond yields. US yields were, on net, little changed. Ahead of the blackout period a few Fed members spoke. Odds of a March rate cut below ~50%.• Event radar. Offshore, the macro focus this week will be on the BoJ, Q4 NZ CPI, the Eurozone PMIs, ECB decision, Q4 US GDP, & US PCE deflator. The relatively more upbeat mood in markets continued Friday with the tech sector inspired upswing in...

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18 Jan 2024

Markets calm down, but for how long?

• Improved sentiment. Equities took the latest uptick in the US 10yr yield in their stride. Limited FX moves with the AUD a relative outperformer for a change.• AU jobs. The ‘labour force lottery’ lived up to its volatile nature. Following a few strong months employment fell sharply but unemployment held steady.• Vol. to continue. The laundry list of uncertainties and macro/geopolitical flashpoints suggests the recent volatility could be a taste of things to come. Risk sentiment improved overnight with a further modest rise in long-end bond yields not causing the same market turbulence as it has recently. On the...

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18 Jan 2024

AUD volatility: a taste of things to come?

With 2023 firmly in the rear-view mirror and markets starting 2024 with a bout of central banker driven upheaval as enthusiastic interest rate cut expectations are pared back, we thought it is an opportune time to spell out our AUD thoughts. And refresh people’s minds about some of the AUD’s historic tendencies which we believe should be kept in mind when managing FX exposures, especially considering the tricky terrain markets and economies will be navigating over coming months. Regular readers of our research would be aware that after an anticipated bout of turbulence over Q3/early-Q4 2023 we were vocal regarding...

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18 Jan 2024

Rate expectations continue to adjust

• Yield rebound. Upside surprises in US retail sales & UK inflation has seen markets pare back rate cut expectations. Higher yields have supported the USD & GBP.• Negative vibes. The shifting interest rate outlook & patchy China data has dampened risk sentiment. The AUD’s slide has continued.• AU jobs. December labour force report released today. It could be a volatile month. Another positive result could help the AUD stabilise. The rebound in bond yields and the USD, and pull-back in risk assets (including the AUD) has continued with stronger US retail sales and a re-acceleration in UK inflation raising...

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