AUD

• JPY vol. USD/JPY dropped sharply yesterday. Intervention hasn’t been officially confirmed. Risk of action to prop up the weak JPY remains elevated.• AUD rise. AUD continues to grind higher. AUD is now more than 3% from its Israel/Iran risk aversion lows. China PMIs & AU retail sales due today.• Global data. Tonight, Eurozone GDP/CPI & the US Employment Cost Index (a broad wages gauge monitored by the US Fed) are released. It has been a relatively quiet start to the new week for most markets, with positive risk vibes continuing and swings in the JPY getting the most attention....

• Upbeat tone. Equities rose while yields drifted back on Friday. The JPY’s slide continued. The shift in RBA pricing helped the AUD outperform last week.• Priced in? A ‘hawkish hold’ expected from the US Fed. Rates markets already look to be factoring that in. A lot of positives appear priced into the USD.• Event radar. Globally focus will be on the China PMIs (Tues), various US labour stats (including payrolls on Friday), & the US Fed meeting (Thurs). Risk sentiment ended last week on positive footing. European and US equities rose with the S&P500’s 1% lift on the back...