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AUD

22 May 2024

AUD/NZD – Another round of RBNZ Shock & Orr

The RBNZ kept interest rates steady at 5.5% at today’s meeting. No surprises. But in a shock to market analysts and the NZD, the RBNZ’s tone and updated projections were more ‘hawkish’. The RBNZ is still grappling with a growth/inflation trade-off, and the latter continues to win out, for the time being at least. Despite the increasingly apparent weakness in the NZ economy (GDP has contracted in 4 of the past 5 quarters even with robust population growth) and widening cracks in the labour market (NZ’s unemployment rate has risen by ~1%pt the past year) concerns about inflation are (still)...

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21 May 2024

Data reinforcing central bank divergence

• Consolidation. US equities ticked up & based metals rose, while yields dipped despite ‘hawkish’ Fed rhetoric. USD & AUD tread water.• Divergence. Slower Canadian inflation bolstered BoC rate cut bets. Will today’s UK CPI do the same? Divergence with the RBA is AUD supportive.• RBNZ today. Rates expected to be held steady. Restrictive settings are working. Will the RBNZ tweak its forecast track to show earlier rate cuts? Another quiet night with limited net moves across the major markets. In contrast to the modest dip in European equities US stock markets ticked up again with the S&P500 (+0.3%) recording...

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20 May 2024

Copper charging higher

• Quiet start. Limited moves across most markets. US equities firmer. Long-end bond yields a touch higher, as is the USD.• Commodities. Copper hit a record as strong demand comes up against constrained supply. There are cyclical & structural forces at play.• AUD swings. After its positive run AUD slipped back slightly. Policy divergence, rising commodity prices, & buoyant equities suggest the AUD is undervalued. As is usually the case, it was a relatively quiet start to the new week across global markets. No major economic data was released which could shift the dial. On the speaker front, there were...

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19 May 2024

Will the AUD’s upswing continue?

• Mixed markets. US equities consolidated, while yields ticked up. The USD tread water, however the AUD outperformed with industrial metals firmer.• China measures. China announced various steps aimed at absorbing excess inventory & propping up the property market. This is a positive for the AUD.• Event radar. US Fed speakers will be in focus. CPI data out of Canada & the UK also due, as are the latest PMIs. RBNZ meets on Wednesday. Most of the major global equity markets were little changed on Friday with the US S&P500 ticking a bit higher (+0.1%) and the key European indices...

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16 May 2024

China data in focus

• Partial unwind. Quieter markets overnight. US equities ease, bond yields rebounded, & the USD was a bit firmer. AUD gave back some ground.• AU jobs. Employment positive, but unemployment ticked up more than predicted. Seasonality may have been at play, as it was earlier in the year.• China data. RBA still looks set to lag its peers. Yield differentials should be AUD supportive. As would signs of improvement in China’s growth pulse. Compared to the post US CPI moves a day ago markets were a bit quieter overnight with some retracement coming through. After touching a fresh record high...

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