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Off the Charts

30 May 2023

Weekly Market Update

Exhibit 1 Spending remains remarkably strong. Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD Exhibit 2 Core inflation is subsiding too slowly. All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA Exhibit 3 Financial conditions are stabilizing. Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Exhibit 4 Payrolls look unlikely to crumble. Initial unemployment claims, thousands Exhibit 5 Rate expectations are climbing. Target rate probabilities by meeting. Exhibit 6 Across the front end. Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, % Exhibit 7 Differentials are putting the yen under pressure. Indicative 12-Month USDJPY Forward...

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24 May 2023

Euro Snapshot

Exhibit 1 Speculators are heavily long euro. Net Long (+) or Short (-) Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars Exhibit 2 Europe’s terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed. Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020 Exhibit 3 Economic surprise indices are diverging to a dangerous degree. Bloomberg Economic Surprise Indices Exhibit 4 China’s not riding to the rescue. Annual change in M2 money supply, % Exhibit 5 Inflation is rolling over. All Items, Annual Change, %, SA Exhibit 6 Policy forecasts are coming down. Implied change in policy rate, % Exhibit...

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23 May 2023

Chartbook: May 23

Exhibit 1 The Treasury is running out of cash. Treasury General Account cash balance, billions USD Exhibit 2 Market distortions are emerging. May 30 and June 1 Treasury bill yields, % Exhibit 3 UK prices are set to roll over. Annual change in consumer price indices, % Exhibit 4 The global terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed. Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020 Exhibit 5 Economic surprise indices are turning against the euro. Citi Economic Surprise Indices Exhibit 6 And gains are starting to unwind. Nominal effective exchange rate indices, % change from...

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08 May 2023

Chartbook: May 8

Exhibit 1 Speculators are doubling down on long-euro bets. Net Long (+) or Short (-) US Dollar Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, As at May 2, 2023 Exhibit 2 Economic surprise indices are diverging again. Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices, % Exhibit 3 Regional banks are still under pressure. KBW Bank Index Exhibit 4 Credit creation is slowing. Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Small, and Large and Middle-Market Firms Exhibit 5 But loan volumes haven’t crashed. 3-Month Net Change in Loans, All Commercial Banks, Billions USD Exhibit 6 And...

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24 Apr 2023

Chartbook: April 24

Exhibit 1 Currency markets are still unwinding last year’s excesses. Change in exchange rate relative to January 02, 2022, % Exhibit 2 Japanese inflation rates remain elevated, but are heading for a rollover. Annual change in core inflation rate, % Exhibit 3 Rate expectations remain deeply divergent. Implied change in policy rate relative to April 24, 2023, % Exhibit 4 The economy’s momentum hasn’t slowed. Subcomponent contributions to forecasted growth aggregate, % Exhibit 5 Wage growth is still running hot. 3-month average of median wage growth, % Exhibit 6 But credit growth is slowing. Deposits, Consumer Loans, Commercial and Industrial...

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